Core view
In the future, lithium battery materials and lithium batteries will be in high growth for a long time, and the contradiction between high growth demand and limited capacity expansion of some materials will exist for a long time. The "change of contradiction" will become a key factor in the accelerated completion of the trend of automobile electrification in the next 3-5 years. In this context, the better profitability of the whole industrial chain will be the norm, and the better profitability and the rapid expansion of production capacity promote each other, while the limited expansion caused by external factors such as energy consumption and environmental protection will also be accompanied. The enterprise has been in the environment of high shipment growth and relatively optimistic profitability for a long time. In this context, investment opportunities exist for a long time.
Better growth environment for new energy vehicles: driven by multiple factors such as double points, carbon emissions and model progress, the medium and long-term rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles is more certain; In the long run, longer endurance will become the mainstream trend of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that 9.25 million vehicles will be sold worldwide and 5.3 million vehicles will be sold in China in 2022; In 2025, there will be more than 22 million vehicles in the world and 9.45 million vehicles in China; In 2030, the annual sales penetration rate of electric vehicles is close to 45%. In the medium and long-term process, electric vehicles replace fuel vehicles to form two-way feedback, electric vehicles have positive feedback, the supporting facilities are more mature, and the use experience continues to improve; The negative feedback of fuel vehicles, the contraction of supporting facilities and the continuous decline of use experience. Under this background, new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles.
Batteries with both volume and profit: we believe that in 22 years, cobalt, nickel core metals and hexafluoride are expected to return to a reasonable price level, the price of direct materials will fall, the overall cost rise of the battery link will slow down, and the cost reduction brought by manufacturing and performance improvement will be superimposed. The battery link is expected to usher in a good era of volume and profit rise in three years. At the same time, in other lithium battery application fields such as energy storage and electric tools, the technology generation difference is relatively small, and it is optimistic about the dislocation competition of second and third tier battery enterprises.
Opportunities in subdivided areas: 1. Ternary rise of long-life drive: in the future, new energy vehicles will shift from price orientation to performance orientation after the market expands to a certain extent. Since the performance of new energy vehicles is mainly reflected in the range, the range orientation will drive vehicles equipped with ternary batteries to become the market leader. 2. Diaphragm and solvent with obvious bottleneck in production expansion: the contradiction between the intensity of industry growth fluctuation and the synchronization of production expansion will lead to long-term tight balance and serious short-term supply shortage in all links. Tight production capacity and slow technological iteration in some links may be interpreted as the bottleneck in the production of lithium batteries or new energy vehicles. Among them, the pattern of diaphragm links is high-quality, the supply is tight, and the profit margin continues to improve; The solvent industry is in short supply, and the price continues to rise. 3. The rise of small track, motor: the arrival of large-scale and performance. The volume of new energy vehicles is increasing rapidly, and the sales volume is expected to rapidly realize from one million to ten million, which will lead to the upgrading of motor performance. In the future, the motor will develop in the direction of dual motor and flat wire, and the third-party enterprises focusing on motor are expected to obtain invisible market share.
Investment proposal and investment object
Focus on the battery link. The product price increases gradually, while the overall cost rise slows down, and the follow-up cost is expected to decline. The industry ushers in a profit turning point. It is expected to continue to release profit increment in the next year and the next. Pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750, not rated), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014, not rated), Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) (300438, not rated);
Driven by long endurance, ternary materials are expected to rise. It is recommended to fully integrated enterprises Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (603799, buy) and Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (688005, buy) with rapid increase in overseas proportion; High quality diaphragm and solvent pattern, tight supply, continuous improvement of profit margin, recommended Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) (002108, buy) and Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) (603026, buy); High integration, flat wire and platform are the three major trends of drive motor system in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (002196, not rated)
Risk statement
The sales volume of new energy vehicles did not meet expectations; The release of supply accelerated and the competition exceeded expectations; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Power rationing and carbon emission policy risks; Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results, etc.
