Industry core view:
In 2021, the prosperity of mechanical equipment sector is divided, the prosperity of special equipment represented by new energy equipment is upward, and the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and other scenery of construction machinery and general equipment is low. At present, the world is in the period of dynamic transformation of energy structure, the demand space for renewable energy such as photovoltaic wind power is opened, the global wave of electrification is accelerated, the downstream industry of photovoltaic lithium battery has entered a period of rapid production expansion, and new energy equipment has fully benefited. At the same time, the technical iteration of new energy equipment has also accelerated the elimination of old production capacity. It is a general trend to replace semiconductor equipment under the neck of chip card. It is suggested to focus on photovoltaic, lithium and other new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment with sustained prosperity.
Key investment points:
Photovoltaic equipment: dynamic transformation of global energy structure, long-term optimistic about the sustainability of demand in the photovoltaic industry. From the perspective of the global market, the global installed capacity is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 21 years. According to the prediction of IEA, the global PV installed capacity in 2021 is conservatively expected to be 156.1gw, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, which will once again set the highest installed capacity record. Irena expects the compound growth rate of PV installed capacity in the world to be 10.2% in the next 30 years. From the perspective of China's installed capacity, the price rise of upstream silicon material drives the price rise of the industrial chain, and the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is under pressure in 21 years. At present, there is little upward space for silicon material price. It is expected that with the gradual release of silicon material capacity at the end of 21, the profitability of photovoltaic industry chain will be improved and the demand for photovoltaic installation will be promoted for a long time. In terms of silicon wafers, large-size silicon wafers promote the accelerated elimination of backward production capacity, and the increase in photovoltaic demand drives the acceleration of production expansion of the silicon wafer industry. The total equipment demand this year and next year is 60 billion yuan. In the battery segment, the production expansion progress of hjt and TOPCON, perc capacity is facing replacement under the demand of cost reduction and efficiency increase, and pay attention to the reconstruction of the industry pattern by new entrants. The component link focuses on the demand for updating and replacing component equipment brought about by large size and battery technology change.
Lithium battery equipment: with the advent of the global wave of electrification + high growth in energy storage demand, lithium battery equipment ushered in the industry expansion period. The global production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming, and the penetration rate continues to increase. Under the support of U.S. policies, the penetration rate is expected to increase, which is good for Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers that have entered the U.S. energy vehicle supply chain. The installed capacity of global power batteries has been continuously improved. From January to October of 21, Cr5 accounted for nearly 80%, and the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranked first in the world, with a market share of 31%. Global power battery manufacturers have accelerated production expansion and large orders for lithium battery equipment. It is estimated that the global lithium battery equipment market will be nearly 400 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025. In the past 22 years, we focused on the technological transformation of power batteries and the production expansion progress of battery plants outside China, and focused on the leader of lithium battery integration and lithium battery equipment manufacturers benefiting from overseas production expansion.
Semiconductor equipment: the downstream capital expenditure increases, and it is optimistic about the domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment. The important feature of the semiconductor industry is that the semiconductor and its demand market are symbiotic and promoted. Technological innovation can promote market demand and even open up new markets. At present, the downstream applications of the semiconductor industry are expanding, and the development of wearable devices, artificial intelligence and other technologies has opened up new demands for the semiconductor industry. At present, China has become the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, and with the iteration of domestic equipment technology, many subdivided fields have gradually achieved breakthroughs in key technologies, such as etching equipment, cleaning equipment, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the substitution of domestic equipment that has made technological breakthroughs.
Risk factors: macroeconomic growth fluctuation risk, downstream fixed asset investment slowdown risk, increased industry competition risk, hjt production expansion is less than expected, localization progress is less than expected, etc.
