Event: the central bank disclosed that the new credit in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan; Social finance increased by 2.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Our comments are as follows:
1. The highlight is the slight expansion of credit. At the end of November, the growth rate of social finance stock was 10.1%, 0.1 percentage point higher than that at the end of October, ending the unilateral downward trend since the beginning of the year. In November, social finance increased by 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly supported by corporate bonds and government bonds. Specifically, ① in November, the net financing of corporate bonds was 410.4 billion yuan, an increase of 326.4 billion yuan year-on-year. On the one hand, due to the impact of Yongmei's default in the same period last year, the issuance of corporate bonds decreased sharply and the base was low; On the other hand, the issuance of real estate enterprise bonds accelerated, driving the net financing of corporate bonds in November to be better than the same period in 2018 and 2019. ② In November, the net financing of government bonds was 815.8 billion yuan, an increase of 415.8 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by the accelerated issuance of government bonds.
2. The deficiency lies in the widening decline of off balance sheet financing and weak credit growth. Off balance sheet financing is mainly dragged down by the decrease of trust loans, which is expected to be affected by the following factors: ① according to the securities times, in the middle and early November, the CBRC issued the notice on matters related to further promoting the pressure drop of "two businesses" of trust companies, requiring all trust companies to further strengthen the cleaning up of existing channel business, and must be cleared before the end of the year Under the influence of regulatory policies, trust loans are in a downward trend; ② Impacted by the credit risk exposure of the real estate industry, the demand for real estate trusts has declined, and the scale of such trusts has declined.
In terms of credit, driven by the policy of accelerating the supply of mortgage loans, the growth of residents' medium and long-term loans has returned to normal, but the growth of enterprises' short-term loans and long-term loans is slow, there are signs of filling the credit scale through bill impulse, and the effective financing demand of enterprises is still weak.
3. Looking forward to the next half year, the growth rate of social finance is expected to gradually pick up. The factors supporting credit expansion include: ① the advance of government bond issuance next year; ② At the end of this year, the transition period of new regulations on asset management will end, and the downward pressure on off balance sheet financing will ease next year; ③ The real estate policy continues to correct the deviation, and the financing of mortgage and real estate enterprises is expected to return to normal.
In the process of credit easing, the market may be more concerned about the credit structure, that is, the growth of medium and long-term loans of enterprises, but we believe that each round of monetary easing to credit easing is not achieved overnight, It has roughly gone through three stages: policy force (correction), total financing improvement and financing structure improvement. At present, we have seen that it may only be a matter of time for the steady growth policy force, real estate policy correction and total financing improvement to drive the recovery of enterprise credit demand and the improvement of credit structure.
For bank stocks, credit has bottomed out and rebounded, and the downside risk of the banking sector is not large; Considering the steady growth policy, the current is a very good medium-term allocation opportunity.
Key recommended targets: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
