Crude oil: prices fluctuated and rose. Early part of the week: the negotiation between the United States and Iran on resuming the nuclear agreement has entered a critical stage. The market is expected that restarting the Iranian nuclear agreement will increase the supply of crude oil, but the situation between Russia and Ukraine makes the market nervous and the price of crude oil fluctuates. Late in the week: the conflict in Donbas escalated, violent conflict occurred in Russia and Ukraine, and the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe warmed up, which exacerbated investors’ concerns about the interruption of energy supply, and crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 96.69 (+ 1.83) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 91.88 (- 1.68) USD / barrel.
PX: the market rose as a whole. Crude oil prices rose and cost side support continued to be strong. On the supply side, there is little change in supply in the Chinese market. On the demand side, the downstream PTA’s demand for raw materials declined, the load of a 3.3 million T / a PTA unit increased, the 2 million T / a unit overhauled in the early stage was postponed to restart in March, and the Northeast 1.25 million T / a unit stopped after reducing the load. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 108067 (- 0.36) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 376.30 (- 12.23) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 168.37 (- 16.18) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 80.38% (+ 2.70pct).
PTA: the market suppresses first and then rises. On the supply side, the overhaul time of PTA large plants is extended, and there are devices to reduce the load and stop. The overall commencement of PTA market is reduced, and the market supply is declining. On the demand side, the start-up of polyester factories in the downstream has increased in a narrow range, and there is still some room for improvement in the follow-up. The export market remains good, but the terminal market is poor, and the production and sales performance of polyester is weak. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 547643 (- 75.71) yuan / ton, the average net profit per ton of the industry is -204.76 (- 76.63) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 69.40% (- 1.10pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 2258000 (- 37000) tons.
MEG: price weakness sorting. The price of crude oil fluctuated and rose, the international price of naphtha rose significantly, the price of thermal coal operated strongly, and the cost side support was strong. On the supply side, there is no change in Chinese devices, the output changes little, the accumulation of port inventory intensifies, and the market pressure on the supply side remains unabated. On the demand side, the start-up of the polyester industry remains high, the start-up recovery of the terminal weaving industry is limited, the overall production and sales of the polyester industry is light, the demand for raw materials remains rigid, and the demand side is favorable and the support is insufficient. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 493786 (- 152.14) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 9175 (+ 39700) tons, and the operating rate is 69.40% (- 1.50pct).
Polyester filament: the market fell first and then stabilized. With the rise of international oil prices, polyester raw materials rise, but the terminal orders have not been issued in batches, the downstream demand is not followed up, the quotation of filament enterprises is temporarily stable, and many market participants are cautious. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy780714 (- 246.43) yuan / ton, fdy828214 (- 203.57) yuan / ton and dty947143 (- 235.71) yuan / ton, the industry average single ton profit is POY + 178.24 (- 86.01) yuan / ton, FDY + 228.02 (- 57.56) yuan / ton and DTY + 420.02 (- 78.90) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy27.00 yuan / ton respectively 20 (+ 0.40) days, fdy30 50 (+ 1.00) days and dty31 50 (+ 0.80) days, operating rate 87.60% (+ 0.80pct).
Weaving: start work and recover slowly. Most of the downstream have resumed work, but the workers in weaving enterprises do not return to their posts in time, resulting in a slow resumption process. There are few overseas orders, and the terminal orders are not issued in batches. The downstream is mainly to deliver pre Festival orders, and the downstream is in conflict with the price of polyester filament and has low demand for raw materials. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 59.74% (+ 9.80pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 33.00 (+ 0.20) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market fluctuated and rose. International oil prices rose this week, boosted by the cost side, and the focus of market transactions shifted upward. On the supply side, Jiangyin Rongli staple fiber plant was warmed up and restarted this week, and the output was higher than that of last week. On the demand side, the shipment of polyester staple fiber is good this week. The rise in staple fiber prices has boosted the market mentality. In addition to just needing to buy, yarn enterprises have chased up significantly, and the purchase situation has improved. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 754000 (- 153.33) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is 166.86 (- 24.22) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 0.60 (- 0.80) days, and the operating rate is 85.60% (+ 4.70pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the demand is still light. On the supply side, after the festival, the supply circulation of some manufacturers of polyester bottles and chips is relatively loose. After the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a unit in the southwest is successfully put into operation, the start-up is improved and the market supply is gradually increased. On the demand side, some downstream beverage and sheet manufacturers have gradually resumed operation, but the demand still needs to be improved, and some manufacturers and traders still have inventory. In addition, due to the recent market fluctuation, the downstream is more cautious and wait-and-see, and the replenishment mood is not high. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 785714 (- 192.86) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 510.09 (- 50.45) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 93.40% (+ 2.10pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to February 25, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 177.89%, the oil processing industry index decreased by – 10.51%, and the CSI 300 index increased by 18.93%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
