Looking back at the penetration rate of the smartphone industry and the company’s key time nodes: 1) apple stands at the starting point of the outbreak of the global smartphone industry, with a penetration rate of about 10% (2017). From the perspective of software and hardware, what is defined as “smartphone”; 2) Samsung stands at the starting point of the outbreak of the global smartphone industry, benchmarking apple at the moment of continuous iterative upgrading of hardware + high vertical integration of the supply chain, and continues to follow; 3) Xiaomi stands at the starting point of the outbreak of China’s smartphone industry, with a global penetration rate of about 15% (2010). With the founder’s Internet operation idea as the core, it defines what is “Internet smartphone”; 4) OV stands in the early stage of the vigorous development of global smart phones, with a penetration rate of about 25% (2011), quickly identify its own “photography / music / fast charging” and other characteristics, supplemented by carpet marketing, and define what is a “characteristic high cost-effective smart phone”; 5) Huawei stands in the period of the fastest growth of smart phones in the world, with a penetration rate of about 50% (2013). With hard core technology as the endorsement, Huawei has successfully intervened in a multi-dimensional way of cost performance + brand + marketing.
Penetration dimension: according to penetration, the development of smart phones in the world and China can be divided into four stages, 1) 0 ~ 15% introduction period: demand side: the market is still dominated by functional machines, and smart machines are only accepted by a small number of high consumption and personalized groups; Supply side: mainstream manufacturers basically stand on the same starting line in terms of technical strength, but the overall change drive is weak. 2) 15% ~ 40% initial stage of growth: on the demand side, revolutionary products that bring consumers a new experience appear and detonate the market; Supply side: new entrants compete more with traditional brand manufacturers, the speed of technological change is fast, and the traditional brand manufacturers that have not completed the transformation are eliminated by the market first. 3) 40% ~ 75% in the later stage of growth: the halo of savage growth driven by the industry dividend gradually fades. On the demand side, consumers fully recognize the use experience of smart machines, put forward higher requirements for quality and cost performance, and rapidly accumulate brand advantages; On the supply side, the advantage of Shanzhai machine is no longer, and the powerful manufacturers squeeze the tail share with cost performance, technology and channels, and the knockout competition is further intensified. 4) 75% ~ 85% + maturity: smartphones are basically fully popularized, and the leaders are gradually centralized.
Dimension of competition pattern: behind the four stages of penetration is the evolution rhythm of this round of smartphone reform: the old and new forces begin to fight – the new forces enter and the old forces retreat – the knockout of the new forces – the shuffle is over, and the pattern is stable. In terms of players, 1) global market: in the first stage, Nokia took the lead, in the second stage, apple and Samsung entered, and Nokia’s decline appeared. In the third stage, Nokia withdrew, Samsung became the leader, Chinese brands Xiaomi and ov / Huawei gradually improved, and in the fourth stage, the pattern of Samsung, apple, Huawei, Xiaomi and ov was basically determined. 2) The Chinese market: in the first stage, Nokia took the lead, in the second stage, apple, Meizu, Xiaomi, OV, Huawei, ZTE, Coolpad and Lenovo emerged, in the third stage, the reshuffle intensified, the era of China cool Union has passed, players are filtered, in the fourth stage, the pattern of apple, Huawei, Xiaomi and ov is stable, and the concentration of leaders is gradually increasing.
Core elements of competition: 1. Software development strength and ecological architecture ability; 2. Hardware supply chain vertical integration capability and product differentiation definition capability; 3. Terminal channel marketing ability. At the initial stage of change, element 1 is more important and determines survival (mainly because software experience is the core change of intelligent machine relative to functional machine); The importance of elements 2 and 3 in the mid-term of reform has further increased, and the three jointly determine the profitability and Development Sustainability (the product technology is gradually mature to test the later strength).
Key variables affecting penetration: 1. The emergence of popular products that define industry standards detonates the upsurge of consumer market sentiment; 2. The industry end technology is mature, the cost is reduced, and the bottleneck of core restrictions is solved.
20072017 smartphone manufacturers’ resumption: software, hardware and channel are indispensable. Every play has a boundary of ability.
Apple: high barrier of software and hardware closed-loop omnipotent casting. As an industry leader, Apple has the strongest comprehensive ability. It not only has the software closed-loop mode, but also has the ability to master the world’s most powerful supply chain and chip self-design at the hardware level. In addition, it has good channel control, so as to ensure the leading position in the high-end market and strong profitability.
Samsung: vertically and highly integrated hardware industry chain. Relying on the ability of SamSung group, taking hardware strong control as the guidance, implement the follow and surpass strategy, follow apple in the whole cycle, explore the price to the middle and low-end market, and use the hardware advantage to realize the full price band coverage.
Xiaomi: “Triathlon” creates core competitiveness. ” “Software + hardware + Internet” is Xiaomi’s triathlon. Software + hardware ensures product quality. Internet ideas help Xiaomi build a comprehensive differentiated competitive element from brand positioning to product marketing.
Huawei: continuous R & D investment to achieve hard technology transformation. In the early stage, we missed the industry tuyere period for many times. In the later stage, we followed up quickly with strong investment determination and R & D strength, and comprehensively followed, learned and surpassed the strength in various fields such as software + hardware + brand image publicity + channel layout.
OV: Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) carpet marketing channel wins. Based on the advantages of hardware, we will continue to make up for the shortcomings of software, create differentiated products in specific fields, and use the advantages of channel layout to promote it in the way of carpet marketing, rising with the outbreak of medium and low-end demand market.
In general, technological innovation is the foundation for the survival of mobile phone manufacturers. Meet the cost-effective needs of users – meet the personalized needs of users – create a better lifestyle for users. The higher the level of manufacturers, the higher the brand premium.
Investment suggestion: resume the development and changes of smart phone industry, and firmly look forward to the big market of smart electric vehicle in the future. [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Byd Company Limited(002594) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], focus on [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. For the recommendation of the sector of parts and components for the sector recommendation of [ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002fora\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk warning: the recovery of passenger car demand is lower than expected; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The growth rate of intelligence is lower than expected.
