Key investment points:
Market review of mechanical equipment industry
1) Since 2021, the mechanical equipment industry has increased by 14.02%, ranking ninth in all primary sub industries of Shenwan. 2) As of December 8, 2021, the TTM P / E ratio (overall method, excluding negative value) of the mechanical equipment industry was 26.02 times, ranking 13th among all 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan, and the valuation premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 114%. 3) in the third quarter of 2021, due to the decline of industry prosperity and the rise of raw material prices, the growth rate of revenue and net profit of the sector showed a downward trend.
The prosperity of the construction machinery industry fell, and exports maintained high growth
From the excavator sales data, since May, the growth rate of excavator sales has turned negative and the decline has been expanding. In November 2021, the excavator sales volume was 20400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%. We believe that in 2022, with the gradual tightening of downstream real estate policies, the continuous narrowing of investment growth, the rise of raw material prices and the end of equipment renewal, the prosperity of the industry will maintain a downward trend. In the future, it is suggested to look for investment opportunities from the following two aspects: first, the national four emission standards for non road mobile machinery will be implemented by the end of 2022, while taking Beijing as an example, the early implementation of emission standards will accelerate the pace of product renewal of host manufacturers and engine manufacturers; Second, the export of construction machinery such as excavators and loaders will maintain a high growth. In the future, with the gradual mitigation of the global epidemic after the popularization of vaccines and the continuous repair of maritime transport capacity, the export data of construction machinery will maintain a steady growth trend. It is recommended to focus on Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) .
Machine replacement is to determine the development trend and pay attention to the penetration improvement of domestic core parts
1) In October 2021, China's industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output increased by 10.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to narrow during the year. However, the cumulative output from January to October generally maintained a high-speed growth. It is expected that the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output will maintain a low-speed growth trend during the year. 2) Contactless application has played an important role in the process of epidemic prevention and control. Under the background of increasing labor cost, many enterprises realize that the problem of using machine replacement solution to improve efficiency and reduce labor is more urgent. 3) In recent years, the scale of China's service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market has increased significantly. Considering the increasing demand of aging population for medical treatment and escort, it is expected that the service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry is expected to usher in rapid development in 2022. It is suggested to focus on Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) .
Rail transit construction has been improving for a long time, and there is still great room for development in the post market
Since 2014, China's railway fixed asset investment has been basically stable at more than 800 billion yuan. From January to October 2021, China's railway fixed asset investment was 567.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, the railway department will gradually adapt to the normalization requirements of epidemic prevention and control, and the demand for railway passenger transport and freight will gradually return to the normal level. Under the goal of the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network planning outline, the prospect of China's railway construction and urban rail construction is good for a long time. It is worth looking forward to the improvement of the scale of rail transit equipment market and post rail transit market in the future. It is recommended to focus on Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) , China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited(688009) .
Recommended subject matter
Generally speaking, we recommend Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747), Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017), Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) (601766), China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited(688009) (688009).
Risk warning: the impact of epidemic situation exceeds expectations; Global trade friction risk; Macroeconomic growth is lower than expected; The growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment was lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies risks.
