\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021.
Key investment points
The photovoltaic industry is booming, and the leading performance of C / C thermal field is increasing
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 214%, which is the upper limit of performance forecast of 1.32-1.34 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 197%, which was the median of 490510 million yuan in the performance forecast; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 215%. In Q4, the operating revenue was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 226% and a month on month increase of + 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 207% and a month on month increase of + 28%. Under the background of C / C thermal field in short supply, the company's production capacity expanded rapidly. In 2021, the company's thermal field output was 1706 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 251%, which promoted the high growth of performance in 2021.
In 2021, affected by the rising price of carbon fiber, the gross profit margin declined, but the net profit margin remained high
The Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) gross profit margin in 2021 was 57%, year-on-year -5pct, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw material carbon fiber; The net interest rate was 37%, year-on-year -2pct, mainly due to the impact of share based payment and convertible bond interest; Excluding the impact of share based payment and convertible bond interest, the actual net interest rate is 43%, maintaining a high level, mainly due to the scale effect and the company's continuous technical cost reduction. In 2021q4, the gross profit margin was 56% and the net profit margin was 37%, respectively - 7pct / - 2pct year-on-year and + 0.5pct / + 2pct month on month.
In the future, the company's main strategy is to pursue the improvement of share, reduce the cost of technology and maintain high profitability. From 2018 to 2020, the single ton sales price of the company's hot field was reduced from 1.35 million yuan to 950000 yuan, a decrease of 30% in two years. According to the 2021 annual report, the sales volume of the company's hot field in 2021 was 1553 tons, so the single ton sales price of the hot field was about 860000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, The main reason is that the company's technological progress offsets the impact of carbon fiber price rise, and takes the initiative to reduce prices and transfer profits to downstream customers in order to obtain greater market share. From 2018 to 2020, the company's thermal field has been actively reducing prices. We believe that it is in line with the logic of continuously reducing costs and increasing efficiency through technological progress in the photovoltaic industry. Due to technological cost reduction, the company's gross profit margin has been maintained at more than 60% from 2018 to 2020. We predict that the unit price of C / C heat field will be reduced to 700000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively from 2022 to 2023. We judge that the gross profit margin of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 57.3%, 54.3% and 53.8% respectively, still maintaining a high level of gross profit margin. At the same time, we believe that the company's production capacity is continuously released, the scale effect is prominent, and the impact of price reduction on net profit margin will be less than that on gross profit margin. According to the split of quarterly performance in 2021, the net interest rate of the company in 2021q4 was 37.1%, the net interest rate excluding share based payment expenses and convertible bond interest was 45%, and the net interest rate excluding share based payment expenses and convertible bond interest was 42%. We judge that from 2022 to 2023, although the price reduction of products will slightly affect the gross profit margin, the net profit margin will remain at a high level under the scale effect.
Signed framework agreements with several leading silicon wafer factories to ensure short-term performance growth
By the end of 2021, the amount of orders on hand of the company was 973 million yuan (including tax), with a year-on-year increase of 5%. By the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were RMB 06 million, a year-on-year increase of - 78%; The inventory was 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 471%, mainly due to the substantial increase of raw materials. The value of raw materials in the inventory in 2021 was 130 million yuan, accounting for 48% of the inventory, an increase of 127 million yuan compared with 2020. The company's orders are full. By the end of 2021, the amount of the above five framework agreements to be fulfilled is Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 1.41 billion yuan, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) 260 million yuan, Jingke energy 220 million yuan, Qinghai Gaojing 910 million yuan and Baotou Meike 320 million yuan respectively, totaling 3.12 billion yuan (including tax).
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the downstream expansion + technology iteration, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 657 / 898 / 1168 million, corresponding to 34 / 25 / 19 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: downstream capital expenditure is lower than expected; Equipment R & D and market development were lower than expected.
