\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 28 Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) )
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 5.30% year-on-year in 2021, maintaining the "buy" rating
The company released the performance express for 2021. It is estimated that the annual revenue will reach 18.713 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.74%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 456 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.30%. Considering that the performance repair of 2021q4 company exceeds the expectation and the equity incentive expenses will be incurred from 2022 to 2023, we raise 2021 and lower the profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212023 will be RMB 456 (+ 0.06), 672 (- 1.16), 1071 (- 0.72) million and EPS will be RMB 74 (+ 0.01), 1.09 (- 0.19) and 174 (- 0.11) respectively, The current share price corresponds to 31.2, 21.2 and 13.3 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. We believe that the profit decline caused by equity incentive fees is short-term, does not change the long-term value of the company, and maintains the "buy" rating.
External disturbance factors gradually subsided, and the company's Q4 performance returned to the normal growth track
In terms of business, in 2021, the company achieved 828000 tons of recycled cast aluminum alloy sales (YoY + 13.11%), including 566200 tons of recycled aluminum procurement (YoY + 32.41%), and the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 222 million yuan (YoY + 81.27%). At the same time, the master alloy business performed well, with a total sales volume of 75000 tons (YPy + 27.12%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 110 million yuan (YoY + 64.81%). In addition, the sales volume of aluminum alloy wheels was 14.69 million (YoY + 9.55%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 124 million yuan (YoY - 49.19%), which was mainly due to the decline in the profitability of aluminum alloy wheels of 2021q3 company due to the upside down of aluminum prices at home and abroad, the rise of metal silicon prices and sea freight. In 2021q4, with the gradual decline of external disturbance factors, the overall performance of the company returned to the normal growth track. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 119 million yuan in a single quarter, with a month on month increase of 93.54%.
The industrial chain layout is complete, and the company is about to usher in a performance harvest period
Recycled cast aluminum alloy: it is estimated that the sales volume will increase from 730000 tons to 1.5 million tons from 2020 to 2025 (the proportion of recycled aluminum will increase from 48% to 80%), and the company's heat-free alloy is expected to benefit from the rapid volume of integrated die casting. Aluminum alloy wheels: in addition to capacity expansion, the company will actively enter high-end fields such as commercial vehicles and new energy vehicles in the future. Master alloy: the high-end grain refiner project with an annual output of 15000 tons and the aluminum based rare earth master alloy project with an annual output of 25000 tons have been put into operation since 2021q4, and the aerospace special master alloy is also in rapid volume. In addition, the company's lithium battery new material project is progressing smoothly and will contribute key performance increments to the company in the future.
Risk tips: the production capacity is less than expected, the downstream demand drops sharply, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
