\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 733 Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) )
The core leader of boehmite in the world has highlighted its growth. Founded in January 2006, the company has three main business segments, namely lithium battery coating materials, electronic communication function filling materials and low smoke halogen-free flame retardant materials. Its downstream customers are industry leaders and well-known listed companies outside China. The company has grown into an industry-leading provider of advanced inorganic non-metallic composites and application solutions.
It covers new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, with strong downstream demand. Benefiting from the continuous growth of the demand for downstream new energy vehicles and the increased penetration of boehmite in the coating of lithium battery cell diaphragm, the market space of boehmite will be enlarged. According to the prediction of the Institute of high tech industry, the global demand for boehmite will be 106100 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 41.89% in 20192025, and the demand in China will be 44600 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 37.49% in 20192025; The development of integrated circuit packaging industry drives the upward demand for functional fillers for epoxy plastic packaging materials. According to the online statistics of new materials, the market scale is expected to reach 181000 tons in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2019 to 2025 will reach 11.94%. 5g commercial background, high-frequency high-speed copper clad laminate market release. According to new material online, it is estimated that the market scale of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminate will be 1.11 billion yuan by 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2019 to 2025 will reach 47.00%.
The global market share of boehmite business is expected to become the first. In 2019, boehmite’s export volume ranks first in China and second in the world. Its main competitors are Germany nabaltec Ag and Chinalco Zhengzhou Nonferrous Metals Research Institute Co., Ltd. In addition, the company’s product indicators belong to the benchmark level in the industry. With the raising and investment capacity reaching production capacity, the company’s boehmite market share at home and abroad is further improved, and the company’s global market share is expected to become the first.
Outstanding technology, the core supplier of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) boehmite. Innovation is the company’s gene. The company has developed a series of patented technologies with independent intellectual property rights around inorganic non-metallic powder materials. The company continued to increase R & D investment. During 20172021q3, the proportion of R & D expenses in revenue was 5.94%, 6.03%, 6.56%, 7.61% and 6.35% respectively, showing an overall upward trend. The company’s downstream customers are concentrated. In recent years, the sales amount of the top five customers accounts for about 70% of the total revenue. In addition, from 2018 to 2020, the company’s sales revenue of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) accounted for 44.41%, 53.08% and 49.53% of the operating revenue respectively, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) contributed greatly to the company’s sales revenue.
Profit forecast and valuation. We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 420, 910 and 1.63 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 119.9%, 114.5% and 80.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 110, 250 and 550 million, with a year-on-year increase of 140.1%, 134.6% and 116.6%. The current market value corresponds to the P / E ratio of 114.5x, 48.8x and 22.5x from 2021 to 2023, and is rated as “buy” for the first time.
Risk factors: downstream industry fluctuation risk, boehmite market promotion less than expected risk, high customer concentration risk, 5g electronic communication function filling material market development risk.
