\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
The company issued a performance express. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 2.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 37.9%. Corresponding to 2021q4, the total operating revenue was 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 72.88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.8%.
Comments:
Revenue growth accelerated month on month, and the transformation began to take effect. The company's 21q4 revenue increased by nearly 25%, and the revenue growth accelerated significantly month on month compared with Q3. The expansion of optimized bulk categories and quantitative packaging has achieved preliminary results. In the short term, the Spring Festival dynamic sales are benign, but due to the high base of 21q1 and the advance of the Spring Festival in 22 years, there is expected to be high base pressure on the revenue end of 22q1.
Profitability has recovered. The net profit rate of the single product is 11.4% higher than that of the parent company, which is reflected by the excellent price of the single product, and the net profit rate of the single product is significantly higher than that of the parent company. Looking forward to the follow-up, 21 years will be a year for the company to vigorously cultivate new products. The scale effect brought by the large volume of new products and the expected decline in the price of raw materials are expected, and the profitability of the whole year in 22 years is expected to be steadily improved. However, in the short term, the 22q1 epidemic is still serious, the prices of palm oil and other raw materials are still high, and the profit side is expected to be under pressure.
The revised equity incentive is more pragmatic and corresponds to the high growth period of the next 23 years. Looking ahead, the company is faced with the impact of channel change in 21 years, actively transforming the core products and launching quantitative packaging. It is expected that 22-23 years will continue to harvest operating results. The company has adjusted the equity incentive target, and the revised target is expected to be more pragmatic and 23 years of high growth can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in the past 21 years, the company has been affected by the macro environment such as channel reform, and its short-term performance is under pressure. However, the company has actively reformed, carried out strategic adjustment at the channel end, focused on core large items at the category end, and launched quantitative packaging such as spicy brine and deep-sea snacks. Q4 performance has had a certain effect. Previously, the equity incentive lowered the performance target for 22-23 years, and the overall performance target was more pragmatic. We expect the diluted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.16, 2.37 and 3.56 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk factors: the expansion of new categories does not meet expectations; The cost of supermarket channels increased; The competition of Zhongdao model intensifies; Food safety issues.
