\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 518 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) )
Event overview
The company issued a performance express, and achieved a total operating revenue of 1.399 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 59.39%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 910435 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.95%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 672144 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61.67%.
Analysis and judgment:
Revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations and profitability is expected to improve. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 1.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59.39%, of which 218 million yuan was achieved in a single quarter of 21q4, a year-on-year increase of + 19.97%, slightly exceeding our expectations. The main reason is that there are many new orders signed in 2020 (1.508 billion yuan, including tax), and most of the revenue is recognized in 2021. In addition, the net profit in 2021 was slightly lower than the market expectation, and the profitability declined slightly compared with the same period. In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 35 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of – 35.83%, which was mainly due to the fact that the company’s management / R & D expense ratio remained at a high level. With the improvement of the company’s per capita output value and the appearance of scale effect, it is expected that the decline of 22q2-q3 expense ratio will be further reflected.
The accelerated expansion of power batteries led to a substantial increase in the company’s orders
1) with the rapid expansion of power battery production, the leading effect is gradually significant. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are rising, the power battery industry continues to benefit, and the installed capacity continues to rise. According to incomplete statistics of GGII, the investment in power battery in 2021 has exceeded 500 billion yuan, of which Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accounts for 50% of the installed capacity of power lithium battery. As a Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) long-term partner, the company is expected to further bind leading enterprises and achieve leapfrog growth.
2) the company has been deeply engaged in the field of laser welding for many years, especially specializing in the welding process of power battery. As of 2021h1, 302 patents have been obtained, and the product matrix has been continuously improved and advanced technologies have been developed. At present, the company has completed the R & D stage of a number of power battery welding related technologies, with rich technical reserves. In the context of the high prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry, the development toughness of the company’s power battery welding business is strong.
3) welding is particularly important in the production process of 4680 battery, and the company is expected to benefit fully. The number of electrode lugs of 4680 battery increases due to the increase of the number of electrode lugs. From the point of view of spot welding process, all polar ear laser spot welding will increase the number of solder joints. Compared with 21700 battery, the number of solder joints of 4680 is more than five times higher. In addition, the increase of the number of polar lugs requires higher welding accuracy, quality and consistency, which makes new requirements for the use stability of welding machines. The company has completed the prototype design of the cylindrical battery assembly line and matched the automatic assembly and production of 4680 battery. At present, it is in the prototype assembly and commissioning, and the company is expected to seize more market share in the production of 4680 battery.
4) in the first half of 2021, the company signed 1.921 billion yuan of new orders (including tax), an increase of 27.39% year-on-year, of which 85% of the new orders came from the power battery industry. We expect that the company’s annual orders in 2021 will be about 3.6 billion yuan, which provides a guarantee for the subsequent performance growth of the company.
Investment advice
Referring to the performance express, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the same profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the revenue from 20212023 will be 1.399/29.30/4.334 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 91 / 339 / 692 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.30 / 1.13 / 2.31 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 35.5 yuan / share on February 25, 2022, and PE of 117 / 31 / 15 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the company.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is less than expected; The downstream prosperity is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
