1. Recommended combination
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) 、 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) 、 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) 、 Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) 、 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) 、 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 、 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) 、 Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) 、 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) 、 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 、 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) 、 Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) 、 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) 。
2. Key investment points
Semiconductor equipment: domestic equipment has won the order of semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment, and the localization of sealing and testing has been accelerated
Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) won the first order for wafer laser slotting equipment, became the first manufacturer in China to supply semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment for Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) and other enterprises, and realized the localization of the equipment. We have always believed that the packaging and testing link of semiconductor equipment will be the first to realize localization, and the technical difficulty is lower than that of wafer manufacturing. However, China’s new capital expenditure is large, and ushers in the best opportunity for domestic substitution under the background of short supply of semiconductor equipment. The core equipment in the sealing and testing link is distributed by domestic equipment manufacturers (slicer – Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ; loader – Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; bonding machine – Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ), which will continue to benefit from the downstream Expansion & domestic substitution process. Investment suggestions: silicon wafer link recommends Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; wafer manufacturing link recommends Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ; sealing and testing link recommends a leading photovoltaic equipment company, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; testing equipment recommends Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , it is recommended to pay attention to Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Suzhou Hyc Technology Co.Ltd(688001) ; Metal structure Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co.Ltd(003043) .
Photovoltaic equipment: high precision series welding helps heterojunction reduce cost and increase efficiency, and the industrialization process is accelerated
For the m6-144 Version (72 whole pieces) hjt components manufactured by Huasheng phase I, the power of this version of components is greatly increased to 493.3w (under the same version, the power of perc components is 450-455w and that of TOPCON components is 460-465w), and the component efficiency is increased to 22.70% (perc module efficiency is generally 21-22%, and topcontigerneo module efficiency released by Jingke in November 2021 is 22.3%).
We judge that with the mass production of Huasheng phase II microcrystalline technology and the improvement of superposition component technology, the component power can reach 495w. Huasheng phase II 2gw aims to achieve the mass production of single-sided microcrystalline hjt battery, with an average efficiency of more than 25%. A Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) large-size ultra-high-speed series welding machine is selected at the component end, with high-precision alignment ability and accurate welding temperature control system. The core of high-precision series welding for reducing silver paste lies in de grid linearization (grid line and pad point become thinner). We believe that component technology is expected to continue to improve, help hjt reduce silver consumption and accelerate the industrialization process of hjt. Investment suggestions: it is recommended to pay attention to a company with forward-looking layout in the hjt era, Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , recommended Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; silicon chip equipment recommended Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ; component equipment recommended Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ； Thermal field recommendation Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) .
Construction machinery: excavator sales in November were – 37% year-on-year, and the industry cycle attribute is expected to weaken
In November 2021, the sales volume of excavators was 20444 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 36.6%, of which 6430 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 89.0%. The export reached a new high in a single month. The main reasons for the lower than expected sales of excavators are as follows: 1) the two downstream stages of infrastructure + real estate are under pressure; 2) The rise in the price of building materials and the uncertainty of power rationing and shutdown have reduced the willingness of developers to start work.
Tonnage miniaturization + rapid export growth, and the industry cycle attribute is expected to weaken. Compared with the previous cycle (2011), China’s small excavation（
<20T）占比已由30%提升至2021年的60%，出口占比由6%提升至20%。吨位小型化+出口高速增长，销售结构已发生变化，2022年行业有望同比个位数波动，周期弱化。推荐 Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) 、 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) 、 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) 、 Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) 。
通用自动化：双控影响边际减弱，工业 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) 进口替代加速
2021年11月PMI指数收于51.1%,较上月升0.9pct。10月工业增加值同比+3.5%，略高于9月的3.1%，季调后环比增速+0.39%，明显好于市场预期。制造业增加值也有小幅回升，主要反映双限的边际影响减弱，上游缺煤限电的缓解带动高能耗制造业生产的恢复。
工业 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) 行业增幅略有收窄，进口替代表现亮眼。10月工业 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) 产量2.8万套，环比-1.9%。疫情显著加速国产替代，内资龙头跻身行业前列。前三季度中国 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) 出货量排名中， Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) 和 Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) 分别位列七八，出货量市场份额显著提升。中长期来看，随着下游先进制造业中锂电等需求旺盛，疫情加速机器换人，多元化需求将推动中国 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) 持续增长。投资建议：减速机推荐 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) 、 Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ；刀具推荐 Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) ，建议关注 Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ；工业 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) 推荐 Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ；机床推荐 Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) 、 Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) ，建议关注 Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) 、 Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) 。
机器视觉行业：智能制造大趋势下的长坡厚雪赛道
中国机器视觉正迅速发展，是长坡厚雪赛道。①2016-2019年全球机器视觉市场规模CAGR达18%；中国机器视觉起步较晚，但增速高于全球水平，2015-2019年CAGR达35%。②作为全球第一大制造国，中国机器视觉渗透率偏低，有较大成长空间，中国产业信息网预测2023年中国机器视觉行业规模有望达到197亿元，2019-2023年CAGR达17.6%。
机器视觉行业盈利水平出色，本土企业方兴未艾。①中国机器视觉已形成完备的产业链，相关企业涵盖零部件供应商和集成开发商两大类；②机器视觉中游环节的零部件企业普遍具备较强盈利能力，龙头企业毛利率常年维持在70%以上。③大量的资金涌入，促进本土企业的快速发展。推荐 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) ，建议关注 Jutze Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300802) ，以及即将上市的凌云光、 Wayz Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Co.Ltd(688211) 。
风险提示：下游固定资产投资不及市场预期；行业周期性波动；疫情影响持续。
