Core individual stock portfolio: recently recommended Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) , Hunan Baili Engineering Sci & Tech Co.Ltd(603959) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Hangjin Technology Co.Ltd(000818) etc.
Special research this week: the central economic work conference further clarified the connotation of the dual carbon goal, and the in-depth reform in the energy field may be accelerated
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing to guide the correct understanding and grasp of carbon peak and carbon neutralization: from August 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. The meeting held that as China enters a new stage of development, profound changes have taken place in the internal and external environment of China’s development, and many new major theoretical and practical problems need to be correctly understood and grasped. The meeting pointed out that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is the internal requirement of promoting high-quality development, which should be unswervingly promoted, but it is impossible to accomplish its work in one battle. We should adhere to the principles of national overall planning, giving priority to economy, two-wheel drive, smooth internal and external flow and risk prevention.
The decline of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy: the meeting made it clear that based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy, and pay close attention to tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technologies. We believe that under the premise of determining the withdrawal of traditional energy, the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. In fact, it is required to strengthen the safety and reliability of new energy as soon as possible and strengthen the infrastructure construction in energy storage, deep peak shaving and other fields.
New renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, Change from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon emission: “raw material energy consumption” refers to energy consumption used as raw materials (rather than fuel), such as coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry, which use coal and petroleum for product production rather than combustion, which will not be included in the total energy consumption control. At the same time, from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon emission It emphasizes the importance and leadership of carbon emission in energy reform. China’s total energy consumption and carbon emissions, energy consumption per unit GDP and carbon emissions per unit GDP are consistent in trend. However, over the past 20 years, China’s total energy consumption has increased by 238.86%, and carbon emissions have only increased by 194.37%; Energy consumption per unit GDP decreased by – 66.55%, while carbon emission decreased by – 70.94%, indicating that China’s control of carbon emission is better than that of total energy consumption. The transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of carbon emission makes the dual control more refined, which is expected to avoid the impact of production and power restriction on some manufacturing enterprises due to dual control of energy consumption this year.
Enterprises that pay attention to the benefits from the energy reform: Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) (waste heat boiler meets the requirements of energy conservation, photothermal energy storage has deep peak shaving capacity, zero carbon plant project has been implemented, and carbon capture technology helps “double control” refinement), Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) (new business volume of energy storage and lithium battery liquid cooling is imminent), Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) (lithium battery energy storage two wheel drive).
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment resonates with the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly, and large-size silicon wafer is also an important way to reduce costs. We are optimistic about the leading production links of equipment and large silicon wafer;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable, power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about the leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, it is expected that the industry sales volume Q4 will have a negative year-on-year growth, and the strong will always be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
