\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 98 Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) )
The company continued to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the production index quickly walked out of the trough and was raised to the "buy" rating
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 64.963 billion yuan (- 13.31%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -13.337 billion yuan (- 279.61%). In 2021, the company initially made an impairment provision of about 2.1 billion yuan and lowered its profit forecast for 2021; 2021h2 company accelerated the recovery of pig breeding production indicators and raised the profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212023 will be -13.337/5.88/17.709 billion yuan (the previous forecast value was -10.244/5.52/11.820 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS will be -2.10/0.09/2.79 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is -9.4/213.9/7.1 times. Upgrade to "buy" rating.
The marginal improvement of pig breeding efficiency is obvious, the cost is continuously reduced and the efficiency is increased, and the cycle is reversed
In 2021, the company sold 13217400 raw pigs (+ 38.47%); The average selling price of hairy pigs is 17.39 yuan / kg (- 48.18%); The sales revenue reached 27.142 billion yuan (- 31.86%). The average litter size of 2021h2 company is 10.1-10.3, the fattening survival rate is stable at about 88%, and the total fattening cost of 2021m12 is 17.4 yuan / kg. The cost of 2022m1 weaned piglets is about 450 yuan / head, and the annual comprehensive cost is expected to be 16-17 yuan / kg. As of 2022m2, the company has 1-1.1 million primary stock, supporting the target of 18 million stock in 2022.
The cost of poultry breeding has decreased, the effect of transformation slaughter is obvious, and the proportion of fresh and cooked food is expected to maintain a high growth rate
In 2021, 1.101 billion broilers (+ 4.76%) were sold; Sales of meat ducks reached 58 million (+ 1.85%). In 2021, the company sold 150 million fresh broilers (+ 18%), with a bright growth rate. In 2021, the total cost of chicken slaughter is 12.6 yuan / kg, and the comparative advantage of industry cost is still significant. The company's meat and poultry slaughtering capacity continued to increase, with 290 million per shift per year (a year-on-year increase of 30 million per year). In 2022, the company's total cost target of chicken breeding is 12.2 yuan / kg, and the company will continue to increase the proportion of sales of fresh poultry and cooked food.
The company has abundant capital reserves and less cash flow pressure at the bottom of the cycle
By the end of the reporting period in 2021, the total assets at the end of the period were 96.904 billion yuan, an increase of 12.57% over the beginning of the period. It is estimated that the asset liability ratio at the end of the period is about 65%, and the debt structure is dominated by long-term debt. The capital expenditure of the company in 2022 is planned to be about 4-5 billion yuan. From the perspective of cash flow stress test, the limit of net cash flow outflow of 2022h1 company is about 4 billion yuan. By the end of January 2022, the company's book cash was about 15 billion yuan, and the cash flow pressure at the bottom of the cycle was small.
Risk tips: rising prices of feed raw materials, breeding epidemic risk, etc.
