\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 463 Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) )
The 2021 trough has passed, and the core network has become a new driving force, maintaining the "buy" rating
The company released the performance express for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 7.42 billion yuan, yoy - 0.55%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.06 billion yuan, yoy - 20.8%, of which the PCB business realized an operating revenue of 7.06 billion yuan, a gross profit margin of 28.5%, YoY - 2.7 PCT. Considering the accelerated updating and iteration of main products, we raised the profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 will be 14.6/20.0 (the previous value is 1.43/1.78) billion yuan, EPS is 0.77/1.06 (the previous value is 0.75/0.94) yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to 22.3/16.2 times of the company's PE in 20222023. The company is expected to usher in an inflection point and maintain the "buy" rating.
2021 Q4 server business revenue starts, and the product enters a new round of iteration period
In 2021q4, the company realized an operating revenue of 2 billion yuan, yoy + 5.5% / QoQ + 7.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 278 million yuan, yoy - 28.4% / qoq-8.9%. Among them, the provision for impairment of receivables, inventories and fixed assets was 135 million yuan in 2021. We calculated that the asset impairment loss in a single quarter of 2021q4 was 41 million yuan. From the perspective of revenue structure, the company has gradually got rid of the fluctuation of 5g base station orders, migrated from the wireless network side to the core network side, and the server orders are repaired with the ease of chip supply. At the same time, the difficulty upgrade of PCIe 4.0 products drives the average unit price of PCB to rise, and the increase of penetration is expected to boost the company's operating revenue. From the cost side, the price of copper clad laminate has fallen. The company's Automotive PCB orders are most seriously restrained by the rising cost in the early stage. In the follow-up, with the optimization of order structure, the profitability is expected to further appear.
The development of digital economy infrastructure promotes the development of the company's PCB business. The company is one of the few manufacturers in China that can supply high and multi-layer PCBs, benefiting from the recovery of the demand for communication applications. 400g data center switch is expected to develop rapidly in 2022 and 800g switch will be opened iteratively in 2023; Intel launched Eagle platform chip and AMD launched Genoa series, which are applicable to PCIe 5.0 products. The server PCB is expected to shift from pre research to mass production in 2022h2. The effect of transferring orders from Qingsong factory and Huli wechat to Huangshi factory will also be reflected. Huangshi factory will give full play to the large-scale production advantage of advanced production capacity and optimize the order cost. We expect that with the launch of a new round of communication applications, the net interest rate is expected to reach a new high.
Risk tip: the company's technological transformation ability is less than expected, the price rise of upstream raw material copper clad laminate erodes the cost, the demand for server PCB is less than expected, the iteration of 400g switch is less than expected, and the competition in automobile PCB market is intensified.
