\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 317 Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) )
Event: Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) issued the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 11.97 million restricted shares to the incentive objects, accounting for 1.59% of the total share capital on the announcement date, including 9.97 million shares for the first time, the grant price of 10.96 yuan / share, and 237 people for the first time, including directors, senior managers Middle management and technical backbone (including 330000 shares of vice president Yu Zhiyong, 380000 shares of Wu Xuejun, 300000 shares of Shen Songlin and 300000 shares of he Changjun); The unlocking target is that the revenue from 2022 to 2023 will increase by no less than 15% / 32.25% compared with 2021.
The potential space of compound condiment industry is broad, and the competition is expected to return to benign. 1) The short-term disturbance does not change the long-term trend: China's polyphony is still in the introduction period. Affected by the epidemic disturbance and channel reform, the short-term demand is under pressure in 2021. However, in the long run, the improvement of catering chain rate and the development of takeout industry are expected to promote the continuous expansion of catering consumption, and product innovation, channel sinking and market education will promote the growth of household polyphony consumption. 2) With the accelerated clearing of supply, the industry competition is expected to be benign: in 2020, a large number of competitors will pour in under the industry dividend. In 2021h1, with the slowdown of demand, the profit of enterprises will be under pressure. After more than half a year of squeezed competition, the industry competition in 2021h2 has slowed down, which is reflected in the rationalization of manufacturer competition and the gradual clearing of small and medium-sized manufacturers.
The historical burden is gradually cleared up, and the company's profit elasticity can be expected in 2022. 1) Benign channel inventory + dynamic sales recovery, optimistic about the improvement of the revenue end in 2022: the extensive expansion of channels in the early stage superimposed the pressure on goods in the early 21st year, resulting in high channel inventory; Since 21q2, we have made great efforts to clean up the channel inventory, and the dynamic sales of condiments have continued to recover since the beginning of the 22nd year. Benign channel inventory + dynamic sales recovery, and the revenue side of the company is expected to improve in 22 years; 2) The profit side in the year of 22 is more flexible: mainly due to the continuous rise of raw material costs and the increase of sales expense rate, the net profit margin of 21q1-q3 company is -15.3pct year-on-year, and it is expected that the profit margin in 2022 is expected to improve, mainly due to: first, the smooth transmission of price increase; Second, as the channel inventory returns to a benign level, the market expense rate is expected to gradually decline. At the same time, there is also room for dilution of the advertising expense rate and employee compensation expense rate under the scale effect after the improvement of the income side. According to the calculation of the company's 2021 annual performance express, the net profit margin of 2021q4 sales rebounded to 17.9%, year-on-year + 12.7pct, verifying the above logic.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Disturbed by the industry demand and channel inventory cycle, the company's operation has been under pressure for 21 years. Looking forward to the future, the improvement of moving sales and the superposition of benign inventory are expected to continue to recover at the revenue end in 2022, with the transmission of price increase + the marginal decline of expense rate, and the profit release is more flexible; Since its listing, the company's organizational structure has been continuously optimized, the investment in brand building has been increased, the competitiveness has been continuously consolidated, and the long-term growth momentum is sufficient. We have fine tuned the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.03/25.4/3.1 billion (the same as the previous value), a year-on-year increase of - 14.3% / + 25.4% / + 22.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 180 / 3.2 / 410 million (the previous value was RMB 180 / 3.0 / 370 million), with a year-on-year increase of - 50.9% / + 80.6% / + 25.3%; The corresponding PE is 91 / 51 / 40 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies and channel expansion is lower than expected.
