\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 398 Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) )
The company issued a 21 year performance express, with a revenue of 710 million in the reporting period, yoy + 38% (vs21q1-3 + 47%); Net profit attributable to parent company: 113 million, yoy + 21% (vs21q1-3 + 30%); Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company: 98 million, yoy + 28% (vs21q1-3 + 43%). Single 21q4 income: 170 million, yoy + 16%, qoq-11%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 14.43 million, yoy-15%, qoq-59%; Deduct 12.97 million net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy-25%, qoq-61%. Under the background of rising 21q4 costs and export pressure, the performance basically meets our expectations.
21q4 the decrease in revenue and profit margin reflects the phased pressure of foreign trade and cost
The seasonality of the production and sales of the company’s main product VIP board is not obvious, and there are large seasonal factors on the cost side, such as natural gas. Affected by the epidemic, the cost of foreign trade shipping is still at a high level, and the transportation capacity is still tight. It has a certain impact on the product sales of the company’s downstream high-end refrigerator customers (if shipping is required) and the company’s product export, which is speculated to be the main reason for the environmental reduction of the company’s 21q4 revenue. On the other hand, the operating profit margin and net profit margin attributable to parent company of 21q4 company are 8.9% and 8.3% respectively, yoy are – 4.6, – 3.1pct respectively, and QoQ are – 12.5, – 9.8pct respectively. There is a great pressure on the profitability in a single quarter. It is speculated that it is mainly due to the stage change of cost side shipping expenses and natural gas price; In addition, it is expected that the provision of incentive salary at the end of the year and the price of glass fiber will remain at a high level, which will also put pressure on the profit margin month on month and year on year. We speculate that the decline in the prosperity of VIP board demand and the cost pressure mainly come from the phased impact, and the subsequent pressure may be gradually relieved.
Continue to be optimistic about the demand growth of vacuum insulation board and the leading advantages of the company
Under the background of the improvement of energy efficiency requirements of refrigeration equipment and the improvement of greenhouse gas emission control, the penetration rate of VIP board (with low thermal conductivity and advantages in environmental protection performance) has great room to improve and the improvement rhythm or marginal acceleration. We continue to be optimistic about the continuous growth of the demand for VIP board. On the other hand, the company has a solid leading position in the field of VIP board. The company has formed the industrial chain integration ability of vacuum insulation board core material preparation, diaphragm detection and preparation, adsorbent test and preparation, vacuum packaging and insulation board product performance detection, and has advantages in customer quality and viscosity; In addition, the company promotes the construction of glass wool production line and the cost control ability or marginal improvement of VIP board, which helps to strengthen the leading competitive advantage. The company is also actively expanding its production to meet the needs of the industry. In addition to raising investment projects, the company has recently reached cooperation with Anhui Huagang town government to build a vacuum industry manufacturing base), or fully enjoy the growth dividend of the industry.
Slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast and maintained the “buy” rating
Considering the cost changes and the pressure of foreign trade stage, we slightly lowered the company’s profit forecast for 21-23 years. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 110 / 1.5 / 190 million (the previous value was 120 / 1.5 / 200 million), yoy + 18% / 36% / 26%. We recognize the company’s 22-year 30xpe, slightly reduce the company’s target price to 56.56 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, customer expansion is lower than expected, product R & D is lower than expected, and exchange rate fluctuation risk; The express data is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific data is subject to the annual report of 2021.
