\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 033 Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) )
The company disclosed the 2021 performance express, which realized a revenue of 676 million yuan (+ 62.72%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 177 million yuan (+ 54.90%) in 2021; It is calculated that the 2021q4 company achieved a revenue of 300 million yuan (+ 68.05%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 77 million yuan (+ 50.53%).
The revenue of carbon based composites exceeded 100 million, and the effect of the second growth curve began to show. The company's business of powder metallurgy brake pads for high-speed railway EMUs is stable and maintains a good profitability. In addition, during the reporting period, the company's carbon matrix composite business achieved more than 100 million revenue, which means that the strategic effect of the company's second growth curve of building business around the application field of carbon matrix composites is beginning to show. In addition, in April 2021, the acquired Ruihe Technology (holding 64.54% equity) was officially included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements. Focusing on the military market of aviation, Ruihe technology carried out precision machining of main parts and mold design and manufacturing of composite materials for multi model military aircraft, large transport aircraft and UAV. The revenue from 2019 to 2020 was about 20 million yuan and 42 million yuan respectively, The net profit is 6.82 million yuan and 18.06 million yuan respectively. It is promised that the net profit in 2021 will not be less than 25 million yuan, the cumulative net profit from 2021 to 2022 will not be less than 60 million yuan, and the cumulative net profit from 2021 to 2023 will not be less than 105 million yuan.
Carbon based composites + carbon ceramic brake pads have become the second growth curve of the company. The company started by relying on the powder metallurgy brake pad business of high-speed railway EMUs and laid out the new business of carbon based composite materials and carbon ceramic brake pads by relying on the industrial chain. The above two businesses belong to the business with good prospects in the future. At present, the layout of the company has begun to take shape, and the second growth curve of the company is gradually approaching: 1) carbon based composite materials business: ① as of October 28, 2021, The company has completed the construction of 2000 ton carbon carbon composite products production line in Sichuan Jiangyou base, of which all 500 ton capacity equipment has been put into operation; ② As of October 28, 2021, the company's carbon fiber preform production line has completed the construction of phase I plant, and the phase I equipment has successively entered the commissioning and installation stage; ③ As of October 28, 2021, the company has signed a procurement contract for carbon crucibles, external draft tubes and other auxiliary materials with Qinghai Gaojing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) Technology Co., Ltd., with a contract amount of 14.2 million yuan, of which the company won the bid for 200 sets of crucibles, accounting for 18.18% of the total number of crucibles in Qinghai Gaojing bidding. The cooperation with other photovoltaic silicon wafer manufacturing enterprises is being actively promoted; 2) Carbon ceramic brake pads: on January 11, 2022, the company issued a non-public offering plan, which plans to raise 2.369 billion yuan, of which 1.319 billion yuan will invest in the industrialization construction project of high-performance carbon ceramic brake discs. The product is carbon ceramic brake discs, with a production capacity of 150000 sets / year after putting into operation, which is mainly used for the braking system of new energy vehicles, medium and high-end passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and special vehicles, Raise the future industrial direction of layout.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company has disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, the profit forecast of the company is adjusted accordingly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 180 (disclosed) / 3.4/510 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 57x / 30x / 20x respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1 The project construction progress is lower than the expected risk; 2. Risk of product verification failure.
