\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
The company is the leader of float glass industry, and its operation has continued to improve since its listing. Supported by the completion of the real estate, the demand for float glass is expected to stabilize and the industry boom may be maintained. The company realizes high-end product transformation through the "one body and two wings" strategy, and high-end products are expected to continue to promote performance growth in the future.
Key points supporting rating
Since the listing of shenfa, Fufa has become a leading company in the glass industry chain, and has continued to expand its production capacity. In recent years, the company has achieved remarkable results in optimizing management, and the net cash flow from operating activities has continued to grow steadily. While the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased steadily, the expense rate has been maintained at a low level, realizing last mover first mover, and growing into a high-quality enterprise with a market value of 10 billion.
Float glass accounts for a high proportion of profits, and the industry boom may be maintained in 2022: the original pieces of float glass account for more than 80% of the company's revenue. We believe that the demand is expected to stabilize under the support of the completion of the real estate. At present, the price of the original pieces of float glass, which is still at a relatively high level in history, will stimulate the supply increment. In 2022, the price center may move down slightly, and the industry boom will be maintained. With the improvement of the self-sufficiency rate of silica sand, the gross profit of the box is expected to reach more than 46%.
Transformation to high-end, the future can be expected: the company adheres to the development path of "one body and two wings". Continue to lay out the fields of building energy-saving glass, photovoltaic glass, electronic glass and medicinal glass. It is estimated that in the next two years, the production capacity of deep-processing glass will be increased by 25.4 million square meters, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass will be 8500t / D, the production capacity of neutral borosilicate medicinal glass will be 25t / D, and the production capacity of high aluminum ultra-thin electronic glass will be 65t / d. The launch of new production capacity will help to broaden product categories and improve profitability.
Valuation
The company is the leader in the float glass industry. Considering the prosperity of float glass may be maintained, the company's revenue is expected to be 14.61 billion yuan, 15.72 billion yuan and 18.89 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.16 billion yuan, 3.90 billion yuan and 4.56 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 1.55, 1.45 and 1.70 yuan respectively. Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The completion of real estate is not as expected, the price risk of raw fuel, the penetration rate of building energy-saving glass is not as expected, and the business expansion is not as expected.
