\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company released the performance express in 2021, realizing a revenue of 4.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 16 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.3%.
High end products continue to be sold in large quantities, and the sales performance is better than that of the industry. In terms of volume, the company achieved a sales volume of 1.276 million tons in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; In 21 years, the country achieved a total beer output of 35.624 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The company's sales volume is better than the overall level of the industry. According to channel feedback, the company's mid-range product market represented by zero Pro performed poorly, and the sales growth was mainly driven by high-end beer represented by pure raw beer. It is expected that the sales volume of 21q4 will maintain a double-digit growth rate, mainly due to 1) the sales volume of 21q3 will decline due to the repeated epidemic and the impact of typhoon extreme weather, and the demand of some channels will be overstocked until Q4 is released; 2) The 22 year Spring Festival was earlier than last year, which was caused by some dealers preparing goods in advance. In terms of price, the company's ton price in 2021 was 3555 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.4% over last year. Under the obvious large volume of high-end products, the ton price increase was small, mainly because the company gave more channel discounts when developing high-end channels. As the mainstream price of beer in the province continues to rise, it is expected that the company's product structure will continue to optimize, driving the profit level to rise steadily.
The cost of raw materials continued to be under pressure, and the net interest rate of Q4 declined. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 13.5%, basically unchanged year-on-year; Among them, 21q4 net interest rate attributable to the parent company / net interest rate deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 2.1% / - 0.6% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.6pp/11.6pp respectively. Since 21h2, affected by the continuous rise in the prices of key raw materials such as barley and packaging materials, the overall cost side of the industry has been under pressure. Due to the fact that wine enterprises generally adopt price locking in advance to avoid raw material price fluctuations, the cost pressure has been reflected since 21q3, and the gross profit margin of Q3 has decreased by 4.8pp to 51.4% year-on-year. The cost side continued to be under pressure, resulting in a decline in Q4 net interest rate.
Structural upgrading + channel development, and the leading position in the province is stable. The company has been deeply engaged in South China for decades and has a considerable consumer base in the province; The high-end degree of Guangdong beer market ranks in the forefront of the country. As a leader in the province, the company still has a lot of room for structural upgrading. In terms of products, the company continues to promote the replacement of 97 pure students to ordinary pure students. It is expected that the proportion of 97 pure students will increase to more than 25% in 22 years, and the canning rate will increase steadily, driving the further improvement of the company's profitability; In terms of channels, the company has strengthened the expansion of catering channels and used catering channels to promote high-end beer volume; In terms of cultural industry, the "brewery" project and pamin culture and art zone have become symbolic cultural symbols in the province to promote current consumption and increase consumers' access to high-end beer. The leading position of the company in the province is stable, the high-end process of the superimposed industry is accelerated, and the future performance is expected to continue to rise.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.28 yuan, 0.33 yuan and 0.37 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 30 times, 25 times and 22 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, covid-19 epidemic repeated risk, high-end competition intensified risk.
