Event: as one of the core three electricity systems of new energy vehicles, motors account for 5-10% of the vehicle value. Among the top 15 new energy vehicle sales in the first half of 2021, the penetration rate of flat wire Motors has increased significantly to 27%. The industry predicts that in 2025, flat wires will account for more than 80% of the driving motors of new energy vehicles.
Flat wire belongs to a kind of electromagnetic wire. There are many kinds of electromagnetic wires, which can be divided into round wire, flat wire and special-shaped wire according to the shape of conductor. Compared with round wire, flat wire has higher slot filling rate. For the same motor, flat wire has greater power density, smaller volume and is conducive to heat dissipation. Therefore, flat wire motor has many obvious advantages. The flat line is completely in the middle of the process of replacing the round line. The low internal resistance brought by flat wire winding improves the energy conversion efficiency of the motor, which is an important factor to improve the endurance and battery cost of the whole vehicle.
With the large volume of new energy vehicles, the demand for flat wires will be greater in the future. In 2021, Tesla replaced its domestic flat wire motors, which greatly increased its penetration. Leading global new energy enterprises began to switch flat wire motors on a large scale, including Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC and other fast switching flat wire motors. In the first half of 2021, more than 200000 relatively high-end models of electric vehicles, Almost 100% of all flat wires (motors); Wuling mini and other economic models are also making flat wires in the second half of 2021 (motor) application attempt; other potential popular models to be listed, such as Weilai et7, Zhiji and jikrypton, also use flat wire motors. Driven by customer demand, flat wire production will enter the period of rapid production expansion, and the supply will increase rapidly. 2022-2023 will enter the period of rapid improvement of flat wire, and the company taking the lead in layout will enjoy dividends.
New energy electromagnetic flat wire has certification barriers and technical barriers. The flat wire industry belongs to the blue ocean market. At present, only four companies produce in mass: Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) , Zhejiang Grandwall Electric Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603897) , Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) and Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) . The four companies have rich experience in R & D and production of electromagnetic wires, and continue to become bigger and stronger in the fierce market competition of electromagnetic wires. They are the leading enterprises in the field of electromagnetic wires. New energy flat wires are classified into the electromagnetic wire business. 1) Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) : the electromagnetic wire business accounts for 68.5%, contributing to the main income of the company; 2) Zhejiang Grandwall Electric Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603897) : the electromagnetic wire business accounts for 98.2%, which is the purest electromagnetic wire enterprise in the market; 3) Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) : real estate accounts for 55.8% and electromagnetic wire accounts for 41.2%. 4) Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) : electromagnetic wires account for only 15.4%, electrical equipment wires 38.5%, special wires and cables 26.2%, and power cables 11.8%. In the future, traditional electromagnetic wire enterprises such as Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) will cut into the flat wire industry.
Investment suggestion: in 2020, the penetration rate of flat wire motor is about 10%, the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicles is about 5.4%, and the comprehensive penetration rate of flat wire motor is less than 1%. In the future, new energy vehicles will replace traditional fuel vehicles, and flat wire motors will replace traditional round wire motors. Flat wires will have a hundred times the market space. It is expected that 22-23 years will be a period of rapid improvement of flat line penetration. Companies that have achieved mass production of flat lines will fully enjoy the first wave of dividends, and enterprises involved in the later stage will gradually share the industry dividends.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the promotion of flat line products is lower than expected.
