Event: on December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference pointed out that it is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Sentence by sentence:
(i) Realizing carbon peak and carbon neutralization is the internal requirement of promoting high-quality development. We should unswervingly promote it, but it is impossible to accomplish its work in one battle.
Interpretation: carbon peaking and carbon neutralization are essentially environmental issues and pricing power issues, and the energy revolution is an important means to achieve this goal. “Double carbon” helps to improve China’s development quality and position in the global industrial chain, so as to obtain greater pricing power. Therefore, we should firmly promote the goal of “double carbon”, but this process is not achieved overnight, and we should also prevent “sports carbon reduction”.
（2） We should adhere to the principles of national overall planning, giving priority to economy, two-wheel drive, smooth internal and external flow and risk prevention.
Interpretation: in the process of internalizing the carbon cost, Need (1) national overall planning: not only energy layout, but also industrial layout should be considered; in the process of carbon accounting, the mobility of overall factors should be considered to further optimize energy and industrial layout. (2) conservation priority: have a sense of conservation and stimulate their own endogenous carbon reduction potential in production and life; (3) Two wheel drive: on the one hand, we should carry out low-carbon transformation, on the other hand, we should promote end carbon sequestration; (4) internal and external unimpeded: there should be a smooth cost dredging mechanism between provinces, between China and foreign countries, and between different industrial elements; (5) risk prevention: prevent the phenomenon of “one size fits all” at the policy level; prevent economic problems in the process of carbon cost internalization.
（3） The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. Based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
Interpretation: new energy power generation objectively has problems such as volatility, which does not fully match the power load. In the context of the rapid development of new energy power generation, if the relevant guarantee work is not done well, the rapid withdrawal of traditional energy will have a great negative impact on the overall energy security. Therefore, on the one hand, we should still do a good job in the clean and efficient utilization of traditional energy such as coal at this stage, and gradually withdraw traditional energy for a long time in the future; On the other hand, we should accelerate the development of supporting supporting facilities for new energy power generation, strengthen the construction of UHV, distribution network transformation and energy storage, and improve the consumption capacity of new energy.
（4） We should pay close attention to tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technology.
Interpretation: in the process of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, we need to pay attention to technological development, better improve quality and reduce cost.
（5） It is necessary to conduct scientific assessment, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition.
Interpretation: the core is to change the methodology of calculating the total energy consumption and intensity, promote the scientific assessment mechanism, and prevent “one size fits all” and unreasonable accounting mechanism; In the future, the dual control of carbon emissions will adopt more scientific guidance and restraint methods, and the policies will benefit green power and the release of upstream energy capacity constrained by total energy consumption.
New renewable energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and the development of green power will be further encouraged. Whether the use of renewable energy is included in the total energy consumption control has gone through three stages: (1) the first stage: the use of renewable energy will be converted into standard coal and included in the total energy consumption; (2) the second stage: on September 16, 2021, the national development and Reform Commission issued the plan for improving the dual control system of energy consumption intensity and total amount , for regions that exceed the incentive renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight, the consumption exceeding the minimum renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight will not be included in the assessment of the current total energy consumption in the region’s annual and five-year plans; (3) Phase III: the meeting proposed that the new renewable energy should not be included in the total energy consumption control, that is, the support for green power has been continued in the direction and further strengthened in strength. 1) the new total energy consumption index is not included in renewable energy, and more energy consumption space can be reserved by provinces for approving more projects; 2) enterprises can also purchase traceable renewable energy Renewable energy reduces its total energy consumption and has a greater probability of obtaining energy evaluation and approval. 3) energy consumption intensity is still the content of the assessment, indicating that promoting the enterprise’s own quality improvement and energy conservation is still the focus of the assessment, which is conducive to the production capacity of advanced technology.
The energy consumption of new raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control, and the energy consumption of raw materials does not produce carbon dioxide in theory. It is not included in the statistics of total energy consumption, which is conducive to the release of upstream capacity and the overall price reduction is conducive to the development of the middle reaches. In the previous accounting method, when calculating the total energy consumption, whether the primary energy is consumed as power or raw material, it is calculated according to the energy consumption. The change of the accounting method this time: (1) the new raw material energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption, and the provinces can also set aside more energy consumption space for the approval of projects, which is conducive to the release of upstream energy capacity constrained by the total energy consumption; (2) the energy consumption intensity is still the assessment content, indicating that improving the production technology level of enterprises and improving the availability of raw materials is still the focus.
In the future, it will realize the transformation from “dual control” of energy consumption to “dual control” of total carbon emission and intensity. At present, the “dual control” index of energy consumption is used as the assessment to achieve the dual carbon goal, which is unreasonable. In the future, the “dual control” of carbon emission is used as the assessment standard, which will hit the key and has certain rationality.
In terms of investment: (1) promote the release of upstream capacity constrained by energy consumption, promote its price reduction, and contribute to the overall decline of midstream costs; (2) for the upstream of new energy (silicon material, industrial silicon, phosphorus chemical industry, negative pole graphitization, etc.), it will be easier to obtain energy assessment and approval if traceable renewable energy sources are used in the future; (3) In favor of distributed energy and green power, enterprises are more willing to launch distributed energy or find traceable renewable energy to reduce their total energy consumption.
（6） To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. We should further promote the energy revolution and speed up the construction of an energy power.
Interpretation: first of all, ensuring energy security is the first priority. Do not lead to the rapid rise of bulk and energy commodity prices because of the “one size fits all” policy. Secondly, looking forward to the energy revolution, the new energy industry represented by photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy and new energy vehicles will become the “mainstay” of energy. In the process of accelerating the construction of an energy power, the whole industrial chain, including the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, the manufacturing end and the operation end, will benefit.
Investment suggestions:
(1) Increase in green power demand: green power premium + reduction in wind and solar manufacturing costs, improvement in the profit margin of new energy operation projects, acceleration of the development of new energy power generation by the state and enterprises, and further increase the support of financial institutions for new energy operation projects. We are optimistic about the future investment opportunities of new energy operators. We recommend: Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) ; pay attention to Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Longyuan Power (H), Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , China Resources Power (H).
(2) It is good for distributed photovoltaic capacity. Recommendations: Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) .
(3) Energy storage development: Huawei’s energy storage system benefits most from the development of China’s energy storage field, recommended Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and pays attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ; Ningde energy storage system, recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) ; PCs, recommended Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , and paid attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) ; industrial and commercial energy storage, recommended Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ; super capacitor and electrochemical energy storage, recommended Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) .
(4) UHV Construction: recommended Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) .
Risk analysis: the installed capacity of new energy is less than expected, and the policy strength is less than expected.
