The central government released the signal of steady growth, and the counter cyclical policy was positive for coal stocks
The price of thermal coal remained stable this week, and the prices of ports and producing areas were basically flat month on month. Among them, the spot price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang has maintained 1090 yuan / ton for nearly one month. This week, the fundamentals are still booming in both supply and demand, but the performance of the demand side is temporarily lower than expected. Since December, the cold air activity is weak, the national temperature is higher year-on-year, and the daily consumption of the power plant is in the rising stage, but the performance in the short term is not higher than expected. The daily consumption performance is lower than that in the same period of 2020. At the same time, due to the great efforts of coal replenishment in the early stage, the inventory of the power plant has been replenished to a relatively high level, The pace of procurement has slowed down; In terms of supply, the production intensity of producing areas remained unchanged, and the operating rate increased steadily. In terms of ports, the inventory of QinGang port decreased significantly this week, falling back below the standard line of 5 million tons, which still supports the port market in the short term. Overall, the current demand is lower than expected, resulting in the loosening of coal price support. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the demand performance of cold winter in the short term. At present, the overall daily consumption is still in the stage of and rising, and there is still room for growth. The booming supply and demand may maintain the stable operation of coal price. In the medium and long term, the policy threshold for the approval of supply side coal mine projects will be raised, the incremental supplement of new capacity to coal supply in the next 2 ~ 3 years will be limited, and the potential space for capacity nuclear increase is limited; On the demand side, the steady growth trend of thermal power demand may not change during the 14th Five Year Plan period, providing support for the demand for thermal coal. In terms of policies, this week’s central economic work conference put forward the word “stability” in economic work, stressed that counter cyclical policies should strengthen and stabilize growth, and support infrastructure development in advance; In terms of energy, it is proposed to ensure the stable supply of energy based on the basic national conditions of coal. The meeting guided the expected repair of real estate and infrastructure, corrected the deviation of energy development, and adjusted the counter cyclical policies, which were good for the expected future demand for coal. We believe that the current pessimistic expectation of the coal sector is expected to be repaired, and the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association drives the continuous improvement of the leading performance of Gaochang Association thermal coal, which is expected to catalyze the repair and reconstruction of valuation; At the same time, we should pay attention to the potential of coal enterprises to transform in the direction of new energy and new materials under the background of double carbon. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiary targets: Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , power investment energy, Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); debt restructuring beneficiary targets: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: this week, the power coal price operated smoothly, and the demand growth in cold winter was temporarily lower than expected
This week (December 6-december 10, 2021) the price of thermal coal is still stable, and the spot price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang has maintained 1090 yuan / ton for nearly one month. This week, the fundamentals are still booming in supply and demand, but the performance of the demand side is temporarily lower than expected. Since December, the cold air activity is weak, the national temperature is high year-on-year, and the daily consumption of the power plant is rising, but the performance has not exceeded expectations in the short term The performance of coal consumption is lower than that in the same period of 2020. At the same time, due to the great efforts of coal replenishment in the long-term cooperation in the early stage, the current power plant inventory has been replenished to a relatively high level, and the pace of procurement has slowed down; In terms of supply, the production intensity of producing areas remained unchanged, and the operating rate increased steadily. In terms of ports, the inventory of QinGang port decreased significantly this week, falling back below the standard line of 5 million tons, which still supports the port market in the short term. Overall, the demand is lower than expected, resulting in the loosening of coal price support.
Coal coke steel industry chain: both coke and coke are stable this week, the profit of coke enterprises is good, and the turnover rate is increased
Coke: the coke price has been stable for the time being this week, and the fundamentals are still weak in supply and demand. In terms of demand, the steel production restriction is still strictly implemented, the blast furnace operating rate is still declining this week, the coke inventory shows a cumulative trend, and the demand is under pressure as a whole; In terms of supply, due to the repair of coal coke price difference, the profitability of coke enterprises continued to improve, and the coke oven operating rate increased at a low level. Coking coal: coking coal port prices were flat this week, and the overall fundamentals were loose. In terms of supply, under the background of supply guarantee, the coal mines in the producing area are actively producing, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the import end is still affected by the epidemic situation, and the overall supply remains stable; In terms of demand, the increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises drives the increase in the demand for supplementary storage of coking coal, and the marginal demand of coking coal improves slightly in the short term, providing support for the price of coking coal. From the perspective of policy, the central economic work conference releases the signal of steady growth, guides the expected repair of infrastructure and real estate, or forms a positive impact on the future market of coal, coke and steel industry.
Risk tips: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
