\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 098 Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) )
Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) mainly engaged in entrepreneur management training. Founded in 2006, the company's core business is a series of offline EMBA courses, and the target customer group is the management of private enterprises. Specifically divided into "concentrated EMBA" and "principal EMBA". "Concentrated EMBA" is the company's teaching team, which gives lectures on a nationwide tour, with an average of 30-40 courses per year, the teaching duration is "three days and two nights", and the registration fee is 29800 yuan / person. "Principal EMBA" is a centralized course, with a course cycle of 6-8 months, an application fee of 298000 yuan / person, and an average of more than a dozen courses per year. By the end of 2021, Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) has served 130000 enterprise students and 70000 enterprises in total. Chairman Li Jian is the founder of the company. He has been engaged in Entrepreneurship and business training since 1992. He has rich management experience and is the core lecturer of the company. The company's core executives have many years of front-line training or industrial work experience, and highly recognize Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) 's business model, values and curriculum.
The revenue and profit increased steadily, and the reserve of contract liabilities was abundant. The company's revenue reached 29.42% in 20162018; The annual CAGR of net profit attributable to the parent company reached 31.36%. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the company's revenue was 379 million yuan (yoy-13.67%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 107 million yuan (yoy-9.52%). The business fully recovered in 2021. According to the performance forecast of the company in 2021, the company's revenue in 2021 was about 520550 million (YoY + 37% - 45%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 159179 million yuan (YoY + 50% - 69%). Affected by the business model, contract liabilities are the wind vane of changes in the company's revenue. The company's contract liabilities have continued to grow month on month in recent quarters, reaching 712 million yuan by the end of the third quarter of 2021, indicating the company's strong revenue reserves.
The management training market has become a "track" with hundreds of billions of levels, and the entrepreneur management training meets the national strategic needs. There is a strong demand in China's management training market. Zhongyan Puhua predicts that the scale of China's management training market will reach 529.2 billion yuan in 2022. At present, there are no management training enterprises with obvious scale effect in the market. According to the data of the State Administration for Industry and commerce, the cumulative registration value of China's individual industrial and commercial households in 2020 has reached about 93 million. At present, China's economy is growing steadily and the development trend of small and medium-sized enterprises is positive, which is the fertile soil for Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) business. After 2014, the general office of the CPC Central Committee, the State Council, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and other institutions successively issued important policies, emphasizing the importance of enterprise management talent training. We believe that management training is an effective means to improve the operation efficiency of enterprises, which is in line with the requirements of China's current economic development.
We believe that the business model of Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) can solve the four pain points of small and medium-sized private enterprise managers in business training: pain point 1: want to learn more practical skills and methods. At present, some business schools in China emphasize individual learning and cognitive improvement of theoretical cases, which is weaker than practical education of enterprise management Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) 's curriculum focuses on solving practical problems in management, including corporate strategy, finance, organizational structure construction, equity incentive setting, recruitment plan, marketing system construction and other courses. Students can directly convert the learning content into their own operation. Pain point 2: want to study business training courses at low cost Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) 's core course, concentrated EMBA, is only quoted at 35800 yuan, and the teaching time is short. Concentrated EMBA has no requirements for academic qualifications and working years, which greatly reduces the threshold of business training. Pain point 3: get continuous counseling in the location of the company. Most business training institutions start classes in the way of centralized teaching at the headquarters Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) is to solve the follow-up counseling problems through the "combination of remote school running and headquarters school running" and "establishment of branches across the country". Pain point 4: want to know what other entrepreneurs are learning Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) is building an entrepreneur ecosystem to help small and medium-sized enterprise managers solve the problem of "what others are learning", that is, to create a "catfish effect" in the entrepreneur circle.
Long term focus: the company has built industrial funds, actively follow up and invest, and focus on potential "rookies". The company has participated in the establishment of an industrial fund to make pre IPO investment in some student enterprises. If the company can complete the pre IPO investment in the student enterprises and the invested enterprises are successfully listed, the development of the corporate entrepreneur ecosystem is expected to accelerate.
Investment suggestion: Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) course is more effective and has more direct help to the improvement of enterprise benefits; There are a large number of managers in China's small and medium-sized enterprises, and the demand for management training is extremely sufficient; The ecosystem of corporate entrepreneurs has taken shape. In the future, with the steady improvement of the company's business scale and the number of students, the company's reputation and brand effect may continue to improve to a higher level, so as to form a "snowball" effect, promote the progress of performance, and the company's valuation center is expected to improve. The company is in a period of rapid development, with stable growth in revenue and performance. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 162 / 213 / 273 million, with a year-on-year increase of 52.2% / 31.0% / 28.2%. The current market value corresponds to PE of 26x / 20x / 16x, and the "recommended" rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: it is difficult to carry out offline courses due to repeated outbreaks; Lecturer turnover risk.
