Home furnishing: the recovery of domestic sales needs to be catalyzed, and the export boom is expected to exceed expectations
Affected by the downward trend of the real estate boom, the market expects the demand of the home sector to be restrained, the overall valuation level of the sector has dropped to a historical position, and the pessimistic expectation has been fully released. If the margin of real estate regulation policy is loose, the valuation repair is expected to run through 2022. From the perspective of prolonging the time window, the credit events of real estate enterprises and the fluctuation of regulatory policies are short-term disturbances. Without changing the long-term development trend of accelerating the penetration of hardbound houses, it is the key to continuously strengthen the internal skill of “extending channels and categories” at the retail end. The industry is undergoing a new round of pattern reshuffle. Contrarian expansion can help the company take advantage of the trend in the recovery stage of real estate prosperity. High quality enterprises with clear strategic layout, excellent management ability and perfect risk control management system have stronger resistance to pressure and greater upward flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Minhua holdings.
Papermaking: the supply pattern continues to be optimized, and the demand for accelerated destocking needs to be boosted
From the operation law of inventory cycle, the active inventory cycle of culture and packaging paper may be coming to an end, and the superimposed new capacity will be gradually released next year. The demand catalysis should be paid attention to when the paper price rises. Special paper is a high-quality track with continuous expansion of scale and good competition pattern. The product attribute of “diversification & high added value” provides profit support and flexibility for the industry. We should focus on leading enterprises with leading production technology, rich product matrix and high-quality customer structure. The continuous release of production capacity will provide strong support for performance growth. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) .
Fast moving consumer goods: both growth and determination, and the rise of domestic goods
Many sub sections of the FMCG industry are fertile ground for breeding giants, with a market scale of more than trillion and broad growth space. Under the wave of consumption upgrading, the downstream diversified demand drives the product end to accelerate the introduction of the old and bring forth the new, resulting in more and more emerging high growth segments, promoting the continuous capacity expansion of the industry as a whole. China’s channels are accelerating reform, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration and symbiosis has become the new normal of the industry. Old giants can “keep their integrity” firmly, and new entrants can also take the opportunity to “surprise” break through. The rise and immortality of local brands are inseparable from the guidance of product innovation, the deep cultivation of channel expansion and the establishment of brand resonance. The prototype of leaders of some subdivision tracks is emerging, which is expected to produce a national leader in the whole category. Suggestions: blue moon group, C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) , Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) .
New type of tobacco: policies have been gradually introduced and implemented, and entered a new era of orderly development
Based on the product attributes of new tobacco harm reduction and the improvement of the maturity of the industrial chain, it has become a trend to replace traditional tobacco. Most countries around the world have successively issued relevant policies for product characterization, circulation supervision and tax management of new tobacco, and the industry has developed with high growth rate and high quality under standardization. In the Chinese market, the implementation of regulatory and tax policies will inject new momentum into the growth of the new tobacco market. From the perspective of asset allocation, the scale of the tobacco market exceeds trillion, and the profit margin is significantly higher than that of the traditional manufacturing industry. The high-quality targets with strong bargaining power in the industrial chain and technical or brand barriers have long-term investment value. Suggested attention: smore international.
Packaging: in the short term, the marginal cost is improved and the integration leader is grasped in the long term
In 2021h1, due to the sharp year-on-year rise in raw material prices, the overall profit margin of the packaging sector is under pressure. With the decline of raw material prices in the second half of the year and the boost of downstream demand at home and abroad, the industry profit side repair market is expected to continue until next year. In the long run, with the increase of per capita disposable income, the demand for middle and high-end consumer goods in the downstream increases, the development trend of diversified, high-end and de plasticization of consumer packaging categories has become, and the middle and high-end packaging market is expected to expand. We believe that leading enterprises have deep technical reserves, high-quality and stable customer structure, and the expansion of medium and high-end business matrix is conducive to the common improvement of market share and profit margin. Suggested attention: Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) .
Stationery office: double reduction does not change the long-term growth, and the leading b-end business is accelerated
Stationery and office supplies are just needed products with high frequency and low consumption. At the same time, China’s per capita stationery consumption still has room to improve from developed countries, and the industry has both certainty and growth. In terms of student stationery dominated by offline consumption, the sinking space of terminal store channels is gradually reduced, and the brand power & product power has become the key factor for the steady improvement of average price. Under the background of continuous improvement of industry concentration, the leading market position is becoming more and more stable, and the strong will remain strong for a long time. With the government accelerating the centralized procurement of office stationery, the tob market is booming, driving the stationery industry into a new round of rapid expansion. Suggested attention: Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) .
Export chain: recovery of demand & improvement of trade expectation, and expected elasticity of export performance
At the macro level, from January to November this year, China’s total export value was 19.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, significantly ahead of the overall economic growth. In terms of income side performance, export enterprises generally have excellent performance. Affected by external factors such as exchange rate, raw materials and shipping costs, the net interest rate of export enterprises generally fell significantly year-on-year, and the performance pressure led to the suppression of enterprise market performance. As a half cycle + Half consumption / growth sector, export enterprises currently have clear bottom layout opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to: Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Xiamen Intretech Inc(002925) , Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) .
Risk statement
The prosperity of real estate is less than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, the epidemic continues to spread, the risk of tobacco policy, Sino US trade friction and exchange rate fluctuations intensify.
