\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 332 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) )
Key investment points
Performance: steady growth and slight increase in net profit margin
The company released the performance express in 2021, with a revenue of 4.345 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%; The net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 14%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9pct. Quarterly, the revenue of 2021q4 decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 3.1% year-on-year. We believe that the company's performance in 2021 is in line with our own expectations.
Growth drive: respiratory department drives the growth of preparations, and the API remains stable
Preparation sales: driven by the growth of respiratory department, the overall net profit margin may be improved. According to the sales data of Wind sample hospital, Rocuronium Bromide Injection Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) sales in 2021 amounted to 212 million yuan (up 50% over the same period), Mometasone Furoate Nasal Spray's sales volume was 97 million 910 thousand yuan (up 64% over the same period last year), sales of benzoic acid and atracurium injection were 66 million 170 thousand yuan (down 6.6%), and progesterone capsules 70 million 240 thousand yuan (up 11% over the same period). We believe that the sample hospital data can partly reflect the sales trend of the company's main preparations. We speculate that the respiratory preparations in the company's preparation business have driven the overall growth, and the revenue growth rate of benzenesulfonacetrocuronium injection has decreased significantly under the influence of centralized collection. Considering the decline of sales expenses, we believe that the overall preparation profit margin may be improved. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the net profit margin of the preparation may continue to increase with the promotion of centralized collection of rocuronium injection and the further decline of the corresponding sales cost of benzenesulfonacetracuronium injection.
API: it is speculated that Haisheng has been dragged down year-on-year and is stable as a whole. According to the announcement of the company on January 18, 2022, the net profit of Haisheng pharmaceutical from January to November 2021 was - 6.57 million yuan, and the net profit of Haisheng pharmaceutical in the same period of 2020 was 42.89 million yuan. We speculate that after adjusting the year-on-year factor of Haisheng pharmaceutical's net profit, the company's overall net profit of API is relatively stable.
Profit forecast and valuation
In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the trend of upgrading the steroidal industry chain and the sustainability of performance growth under the production capacity investment and audit of Yangfu API. The technical process and production quality control capacity accumulated by the company in the field of steroidal API and intermediates lay the foundation for the upgrading of supply capacity; In the medium and short term, with the main varieties participating in the volume procurement, the profitability of the preparation is improved and the respiratory market continues to expand, the sustainability of profit growth may exceed expectations. In the profit forecast, we have considered the impact of centralized purchase of preparation varieties from 2022 to 2023, and do not consider the sales of new preparations for the time being. We expect EPS to be 0.62, 0.75 and 0.92 yuan / share respectively from 2021 to 2023. The closing price on February 25, 2022 corresponds to 18 times PE in 2021 and 15 times PE in 2022, which has a high valuation cost performance and maintains the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of centralized purchase and price reduction of core preparation products, the risk of fluctuation of production capacity input cycle, the risk that the high-end market expansion of API business is less than expected, and the risk of sharp fluctuation of raw material cost
