\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 208 Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) )
Event:
The company announced the performance express of 2021: in 2021, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 384 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%.
Comments:
1. The performance is in line with expectations, and the increase of expenses affects the profit performance
The company’s revenue maintained a high growth in 2021, mainly due to the high growth of ADAS products and the rapid growth of third-generation comprehensive diagnostic products, software cloud service products and TPMS products. The net profit attributable to the parent company increased slightly in 2022, which was lower than the revenue growth. The main reasons were as follows: 1) the rise in the prices of raw materials and international freight reduced the company’s gross profit margin; 2) The company increased R & D investment in new energy, software cloud and other products; 3) The equity incentive granted by the company in September 2020 generates share based payment expenses. We believe that if the prices of raw materials and international freight fall in 2022, the company’s cost control will be more reasonable and the company’s profits are expected to be released.
2. The decrease of Q4 revenue growth is mainly affected by the base, and it is optimistic about the high growth of revenue in 2022
We estimate that the company’s Q4 single quarter revenue growth rate is about 22.73% and H2 revenue growth rate is about 22.89%, which is significantly slower than 75.80% of H1. We believe that it is mainly affected by the performance base in 2020. If 2019 is taken as the base, the company’s 2021h1 / H2 growth rates are 96.33% / 82.16% respectively. We are optimistic that the company’s 2022 revenue will maintain high growth.
3. New energy products are expected to start in large quantities in 2022, opening the second growth curve of the company
In September 2021, the company officially released new energy products, including intelligent diagnostic instrument, equalizer and other maintenance tool products and charging piles. We believe that new energy products will open the second growth curve of the company: 1) the general trend of vehicle electrification, and the number of electric vehicles is expected to increase rapidly; 2) Starting from diagnosis and maintenance tools, electric vehicles are expected to provide significant increment for the company; 3) Charging pile will become the company’s benchmark product facing the new energy era, with four core technology support and construction advantages. We expect that the company’s new energy products are expected to start in large quantities in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Based on the company’s 2021 performance express, we adjusted the profit forecast, adjusted the company’s 20212023 revenue forecast from 2210 / 2973 / 3975 million yuan to 2254 / 3155 / 4260 million yuan, adjusted the net profit from 510 / 755 / 1061 million yuan to 440 / 6500 / 892 million yuan, and the corresponding PE was 52.30/35.44/25.83 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the promotion of the company’s new energy products is not as expected; The company’s R & D investment is higher than expected; The performance express is the preliminary calculation result, which shall be subject to the annual report; Systemic risk.
