The central economic work conference set the macroeconomic policy of 2022 as stable and effective, and implemented an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to cope with the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, stimulate the vitality of domestic demand, expand consumption momentum and maintain the vitality of long-term economic development. The meeting proposed to steadily promote the concentration management of real estate loans and other measures to achieve the healthy and stable development of the real estate market. At the same time, we should support the “ahead” development of infrastructure construction and continue to play the role of counter cyclical and cross cyclical regulation. We believe that in 2022, the negative impact of the real estate industry will be gradually cleared, and the infrastructure investment will be started moderately in advance, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of demand in the construction industry, superimpose the valuation and repair trend of the whole construction sector, and we will continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
The meeting proposed to moderately advance infrastructure investment, resolutely curb the new implicit debt of local governments, and continue to play the role of counter cyclical and cross cyclical regulation, so as to drive investment with consumption, improve people’s lives and maintain the vitality of economic development. At the same time, the fiscal policy will also “advance” through on balance sheet and off balance sheet support for infrastructure. It is expected that the special debt will remain strong in 2022 and accelerate the formation of physical workload. The direction of development is mainly infrastructure projects such as new energy, transportation and affordable housing. Infrastructure, green building, new energy and other related building sub fields are expected to benefit, with emphasis on China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) .
The meeting proposed to unswervingly promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization, gradually realize the safe and reliable substitution of new energy, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy, create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, and quickly promote the adjustment of energy structure. The development of relevant green technologies is a necessary means to achieve carbon neutralization and the core of reducing development costs. The consumption reduction, low carbon and carbon capture technology of professional engineering leaders in high emission industries such as steel and cement will become the starting point for the whole industry to realize carbon neutralization. Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) are recommended.
The meeting proposed to improve the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and increase the intensity of tackling key problems of important products and core technologies. The “construction +” industrial field is expected to receive more national support and fulfill its fundamentals. China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) is recommended.
Prefabricated buildings are an important measure to develop zero carbon buildings, and the penetration rate will continue to increase. The “14th five year plan” of the industry and the long-term goal of 2035 issued by China Steel Structure Association put forward that by 2025, the consumption of steel structures in China will reach about 140 million tons, accounting for more than 15% of the crude steel output, and steel structure buildings account for more than 15% of the new construction area. At present, there is still a certain distance between the development of the industry and the market space is large. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) and Yuanda resident workers. BIPV helps achieve the double carbon goal. The construction industry is at the back end of BIPV. It is a key link to ensure that the roof and wall of new and old buildings meet the requirements of photovoltaic facilities, focusing on Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) .
Risk warning: the implementation of the policy is not as expected; The negative impact of real estate is less than expected; The issuance speed of special bonds is lower than expected; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes in the macro environment.
