Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: the central economic work conference proposed to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Infrastructure construction is “ahead of schedule” The demand for cement is expected to improve; The meeting also proposed that achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is an inherent requirement for promoting high-quality development, which should be unswervingly promoted. The carbon neutralization policy is conducive to further promote the energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimize the industry supply pattern and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries. (2) Glass fiber sector: at this stage, the price of glass fiber roving remains high, and the future demand for new energy vehicles and wind power is better. Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the management measures for the transformation, upgrading and retirement of wind farms The draft encourages the use of advanced and efficient wind turbines to transform and upgrade wind farms, improve wind energy resources and land utilization, increase the demand for new replacement of wind power, and further increase the demand for glass fiber. From the supply side, the growth of medium and long-term glass fiber production capacity is limited, and the high prosperity of glass fiber industry is expected to continue. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: the central economic work conference requires that next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy. All parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. The policy of stabilizing the economy and broadening credit is conducive to the recovery of cement demand at the infrastructure and real estate end. (2) Fundamentals: in the first ten days of December, the price of China’s cement market continued to decline. On the one hand, in the final demand period, the downstream demand was weak, and the enterprise shipment remained at the level of 60-80%. The cement enterprises in the South produced normally and the inventory operated at a high level. In order to reduce the inventory pressure, the price was continuously reduced; on the other hand, the cement produced at high cost in the early stage was before the end of the market After the clearing, the cement enterprises in the north had to adopt the price reduction strategy. In view of the poor relationship between market supply and demand and the relatively high cement prices in some regions, the prices will continue to weaken in the later stage. (3) In the medium and long term, the carbon neutralization policy is conducive to further promote the energy conservation and carbon reduction of cement manufacturers, optimize the industry supply pattern and enhance the competitive advantage of leading industries. At present, the regional leaders of cement Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) are mainly recommended.
Recommended glass fiber industry: Recently, the demand orders of tank kilns have been relatively stable, while the product prices of small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to be slightly adjusted to further promote the volume, but the decline is limited. Most enterprises may slightly adjust the prices of some products, and the overall price is still at a high level; The market probability of electronic yarn shows a temporary stable trend after adjustment. At present, the prices of China’s major electronic yarn kilns have been reduced one after another, and the market prices of downstream electronic cloth have also been significantly loosened. In the short term, the demand support is limited, and the delivery enthusiasm of downstream PCB market is general. In addition, the increment of terminal orders is small, the probability of short-term electronic yarn market shows a temporary stable trend after adjustment, and the medium and long-term market is expected to be weak. In terms of individual stocks, focus on recommending industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , and pay attention to Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: since the beginning of the month, the glass spot market has warmed up, the production and sales of manufacturers are better, and most manufacturers can reduce their inventory to a certain extent. In order to boost market confidence, production enterprises are also actively raising their quotations to increase outbound and return funds. At present, the orders of downstream processing enterprises are acceptable, foreign trade export orders are stable, and China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) decoration orders have increased month on month. In the same period, glass processing enterprises also accelerated the delivery of previous orders, and their willingness to purchase glass increased month on month. The current market demand is basically rigid demand, and the inventories of traders and processing enterprises are at a very low level. It is expected that there will be a period of rush orders to be delivered in the later stage, and the market transaction will maintain the early level. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually emerging, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing waterproof layers have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) are recommended. The gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) is recommended. The layout of “one body and two wings” of the company is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The leading Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and Hong Kong stock China Liansu are recommended for the pipe plate. Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) are recommended for coating plate.
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; Market demand is less than expected; The performance of the recommended company does not meet expectations; The epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes in the macro environment.
