\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 1.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 213.7%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 501 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 197.3%, and a net profit of 460 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 215.3% and EPS 6.5% 25 yuan. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 225.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 167 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 206.9%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The shipment volume of carbon matrix composites increased significantly, which promoted the high growth of performance. In 2021, the company’s sales volume of advanced carbon matrix composites was 1553 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 246.36%. The revenue per kilogram was about 860 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 8%. The sharp growth of sales volume promoted the rapid growth of the company’s revenue scale. In 2021q4, the sales volume and output of carbon matrix composites of the company are about 536 tons and 519 tons respectively, and the corresponding income per kilogram is about 840 yuan. By the end of 2021, the amount of orders on hand of the company was 973 million yuan (including tax).
The gross profit rate decreased slightly, and the scale effect led to a significant reduction in the cost rate. In 2021, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 57.27%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.67 percentage points, mainly due to the decline of carbon matrix composite product price and the rise of cost side. As mentioned above, the price per kilogram will drop by about 8% in 2021; In 2021, the cost per kilogram was about 368 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 6%. Among them, the unit direct material cost increased significantly, while the unit labor and manufacturing expenses decreased slightly. Carbon fiber is the main raw material of the company. According to the disclosed data, from January to September 2021, the average purchase unit price of carbon fiber of the company was 199600 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.28% over the average purchase unit price of 174700 yuan / ton in 2020. From the expense side, the rapid growth of revenue scale has a dilution effect on the expense rate. In 2021, the total expense rate of sales, management, R & D and finance was 15.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1 percentage points; In 2021, the expenses related to equity incentive are about 57 million yuan, accounting for 4.2% of the total revenue. Excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, the decline of the company’s comprehensive expense rate is more obvious.
Continue to expand production capacity and consolidate its leading position. The output of 2021q4 company has exceeded 500 tons. It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the total capacity of carbon matrix composites of the company has reached about 2000 tons. According to the company’s fixed increase plan, the number of shares to be issued in the future will not exceed 12 million, and the raised funds will not exceed 3.103 billion yuan, which is mainly used to build the capacity expansion project of high-purity and large-scale advanced carbon matrix composites with an annual output of 1500 tons; The products of this raised investment and production expansion project are mainly used in the field of n-type silicon wafers, with higher purity and larger size. Compared with the field of p-type silicon wafers, they have higher requirements for purification process (more purification equipment, longer purification time, etc.). With the subsequent fixed raising investment projects put into operation, the company’s overall production capacity will further increase significantly, and is expected to occupy the first mover advantage in carbon matrix composites for n-type silicon wafers.
Silicon wafer demand is balanced by iterative structure. In 2021, the top five customers of the company are Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy and Jingao Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) source, which are China’s leading monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises. The proportion of single customer in the total revenue of the company is no more than 16%, and the total revenue of the top five customers accounts for 64.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 12 percentage points, indicating that the customer structure of the company is more balanced. From the demand side, according to the prediction of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the penetration rate of large-size silicon wafers will accelerate, and the total share of 182 and 210 silicon wafers is expected to reach 75% in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 30 percentage points; In addition, the demand for n-type silicon wafer will also accelerate. The penetration rate of n-type battery is expected to reach 13% in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 10 percentage points; These industrial trends will push up the demand for new addition and transformation of carbon heat field.
Expand application fields and product types and create new growth points. At present, the company’s products are mainly used in the thermal field system of crystalline silicon manufacturing in the photovoltaic field. Based on the company’s technical accumulation and continuous research and development in the general underlying technology, preparation mechanism and basic equipment of carbon based materials, the company is gradually expanding its application in the fields of Semiconductors and high-temperature heat treatment, and expanding its application in the fields of hydrogen fuel cells, friction braking and so on. In 2021, the company invested and established wholly-owned subsidiaries Hunan Jinbo Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Hunan Jinbo carbon ceramic technology Co., Ltd. to expand the market application in the field of hydrogen energy and friction braking. At present, the company has completed the research and development of some new processes and started the verification of relevant new products. In the future, hydrogen energy and friction braking products are expected to become new growth points of the company.
Investment advice. Considering the situation of supply and demand side, the profit forecast is slightly adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 will be 688 million and 897 million yuan (the original forecast value is 658 million and 875 million yuan), EPS will be 857 million and 11.19 million yuan, and dynamic pe32.5 million yuan 5. 24.9x. Carbon matrix composites have a large growth space in many fields such as photovoltaic. The company has outstanding competitiveness in the field of carbon matrix composites and maintains the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk warning. 1) The demand of photovoltaic industry is affected by many factors such as green policy, macro-economy and covid-19 epidemic, and there is a risk that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected. 2) The company is actively developing hydrogen energy, carbon / ceramic and other businesses, with less than expected risks. 3) At present, there are few participants in carbon matrix composites for photovoltaic and the competition pattern is good. If the company cannot continue to maintain and expand its competitive advantage, the current high gross profit margin may be difficult to maintain.
