\u3000\u30006 Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) 00009)
Aviation business data: China's passenger throughput in 21 years was - 19% year-on-year, of which Q4 was - 7% month on month
Passenger throughput: in 2021, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) passenger throughput totaled about 32.21 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of + 6% in 20 years and - 58% in 19 years; In Q4, the passenger throughput was - 19% year-on-year, 19 - 63% year-on-year and 7% lower than that in 21q3. In terms of routes, 1) Chinese routes: the passenger throughput is about 30.53 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of 20 years + 19% and a year-on-year increase of 19 years - 19%; 2) International and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan routes: the total passenger throughput is about 1.68 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of - 65% in 20 years and - 96% in 19 years.
Take off and landing sorties: in 2021, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) take off and landing sorties totaled about 349000 sorties, a year-on-year increase of + 7% in 20 years and - 32% in 19 years; In Q4, the number of take-off and landing sorties was - 10% year-on-year, 19 - 36% year-on-year, and 6% higher than that in 21q3. In terms of routes, 1) Chinese routes: the cumulative number of take-off and landing sorties is about 252000, with a year-on-year increase of + 18% in 20 years and - 5% in 19 years; 2) International and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan routes: the cumulative number of take-off and landing sorties was about 97000, with a year-on-year increase of - 14% in 20 years and - 61% in 19 years.
Cargo and mail throughput: in 2021, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) cargo and mail throughput was about 3.99 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 8% in 20 years and + 10% in 19 years.
21q4 revenue + 13% year-on-year, loss narrowed by 70 million yuan year-on-year
According to the performance express of 2021 disclosed by the company, the operating revenue in 2021 was 3.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 13%; Among them, Q4 was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13%. Among them, the tax-free rental income in 2021 was about 500 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 660 million yuan, affecting the net profit attributable to the parent company of about -495 million yuan.
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.71 billion yuan, and the loss increased by 440 million yuan year-on-year, falling in the middle of the forecast range; Among them, Q4 lost 460 million yuan and the loss narrowed by 70 million yuan year-on-year. We believe that it is mainly affected by the decline of tax-free rental income and the decline of international route income (the passenger throughput of international, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan routes was - 65% year-on-year in 2021, and the charge of one entry-exit passenger was about 2-2.5 times that of one Chinese passenger).
Once the international passenger flow recovers, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) performance & valuation is expected to be double repaired
Once the international passenger flow recovers, the company's tax-free income is expected to increase significantly and the tax-free elasticity is expected to recover. We believe that after the opening of the international door, the international passenger flow will usher in a deterministic recovery, the bargaining power of the airport will be restored simultaneously, and the scale of duty-free sales will be greatly increased. Once the sales volume exceeds the guaranteed minimum, the marginal cost of China tax exemption in Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) duty-free channels will be lower than other channels. We believe that the scale of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) duty-free sales is expected to exceed expectations, and the company's performance is also expected to exceed expectations.
Hongqiao Airport is expected to restore its international functions and expand its duty-free area in the future. The two airports will develop in coordination in the future. In February 2021, the State Council approved the overall plan for the construction of Hongqiao International Open hub, which aims to basically complete the Hongqiao International Open hub by 2025 and fully complete the Hongqiao International Open hub by 20 It is proposed to establish an international air transport cooperation mechanism with Hongqiao International Airport as the core, optimize and expand the international shipping service of Hongqiao Airport, and clarify the functional orientation suitable for the international open hub; At the same time, apply for the expansion of duty-free shopping places at Hongqiao International Airport and carry out the pilot of "buy and return" of departure tax rebate.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years to be -1.71 billion yuan, 160 million yuan and 5.14 billion yuan respectively. After the opening of the door, the sales scale of airport duty-free stores will recover with certainty. The company's performance and tax-free elasticity are expected to be repaired and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the recovery of passenger flow is less than expected, and the result of tax-free re bidding after 2025 is less than expected.
