\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 185 Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) )
Performance: Q4 increased month on month, with high growth throughout the year
The company released the performance express for 2021, with a revenue of 4.3 billion, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.91 billion and a net profit margin attributable to the parent of 44.5%. Quarter by quarter, the revenue in 2021q4 increased by 18.5% month on month, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 46.2% month on month. We believe that the company's performance in 2021 is in line with our own expectations.
In the first year of rapid commercialization, we look forward to a breakthrough from 1 to n
In the first year of covid-19 vaccine commercialization, the transition from a single pipeline to a comprehensive vaccine platform was made. According to the company's performance bulletin, in 2021, the company's performance increased significantly "mainly with the recombinant New Coronavirus vaccine (type 5 adenovirus vector)" (trade name: Ke Wei Sha). ®） It has obtained conditional listing approval and emergency use authorization from many countries at home and abroad. The commercialization of the product has a positive impact on the company's total operating revenue and relevant profit indicators ". Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the growth of the company is driven by ① enhanced vaccination of covid-19 vaccine abroad, ② initial vaccination of covid-19 vaccine abroad, and ③ large sales of mcv2 and MCV4 in China. We believe that 2021 is the turning point for the company to build a vaccine commercialization platform. The rapid growth of fixed assets and projects under construction in 2021 reflects that the company is in the transition period from biotech to biopharma. With the gradual maturity of the company's production organization capacity and commercial operation and maintenance team, pipeline promotion and revenue growth are expected to enter the fast lane.
The sequential vaccination plan was announced, focusing on the potential increment of booster injection in China. According to the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on February 19, 2022, "the recombinant protein vaccine of zhifeilong KOMA or the adenovirus vector vaccine of Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) will carry out sequential immunization"; According to the research of Zhu Fengcai and Chen Wei of Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (published in January 2022), from the level of euvirus neutralizing antibody, 2 doses of inactivated vaccine + 1 dose of Ad5 vector vaccine 1 dose of inactivated vaccine + 1 dose of Ad5 vector vaccine 3 doses of covid-19 inactivated vaccine 2 doses of covid-19 inactivated vaccine. We focus on the potential increment of the company's adenovirus vector covid-19 vaccine under the sequential vaccination scheme.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 7.74 yuan, 12.55 yuan and 17.77 yuan / share respectively, and the closing price on February 25, 2022 corresponds to 21 times PE in 2022. We are optimistic about the company's technical advantages in the field of protein structure design and adenovirus vector platform. At the same time, we are optimistic about the company's rapid promotion of sales team construction and international R & D cooperation with the help of covid-19 vaccine commercialization opportunities; With the continuous listing of mcv2, MCV4 and other products and the clinical promotion of innovative vaccines such as pcv13i and PBPV, the company's vaccine product echelon is expected to continue to enrich and maintain the "overweight" rating
Risk tips
The risk of failure in vaccine clinical research and development, the risk of repeated covid-19 epidemic, the risk of changes in China's vaccine procurement policy, and the risk of lower than expected capacity release.
