\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 390 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 2.686 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 281 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 967 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75% and a month on month increase of + 53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 66 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 1% and a month on month increase of + 6%. Excluding the equity incentive fee, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16%, in line with market expectations.
The number of domestic chips is gradually increased, and it is optimistic that the number and profit of grid connected inverters will rise in 2022. We expect that 44 Shenzhen Textile (Holdings) Co.Ltd(000045) 0000 grid connected inverters will be shipped in 2021, which corresponds to 6.2-6.3gw based on a single 14kw, an increase of about 35% at the same time, and the market share will increase to 4%. About 80000 units were shipped in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of - 4% and a month on month increase of + 20%. Mainly due to the shortage of chip supply, the company's production capacity has not been fully brought into play. In 2022, the company introduced new Chinese chip suppliers and has gradually increased the volume since February. We expect the company to ship 8 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 00000 inverters in 2022, an increase of 78-100% at the same time. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of the company's grid connected inverter was about 33-34% in 2021, down about 3pcts at the same time, mainly due to the rise of chips and overseas freight. Since January 2022, the price of the company's overseas new orders has increased by about 5%, the transmission cost has increased, the gross profit margin can be gradually repaired, and the volume and profit will increase in 2022.
Energy storage is growing brightly, and household photovoltaic is gradually increasing. We estimate that the revenue from energy storage business will be 380400 million yuan in 2021, with an increase of about 138% at the same time, and the proportion of revenue will increase from 10% in 2021 to 15% in 2022. In 2021, the company will ship 5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 energy storage inverters and 8 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0 battery packs. In 2022, the planned energy storage business of the company will reach 1 billion yuan + revenue, doubling the growth, and the contribution of operating revenue will be further improved. In 2021, the company expanded the new business of household photovoltaic, completed about 70mW in Q4, and subsequently targeted Suzhou Industrial Park. The business volume will gradually expand and become a new growth point.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the shortage of chips and rising costs, we lowered the company's profit in 2021. At the same time, based on the enhancement of the company's chip supply guarantee capacity, the improvement of overseas selling price and the strength of energy storage business in 2022, we raised the profit forecast for 2022 and 2023. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 281 million yuan, 673 million yuan 1.032 billion yuan (the previous value was 311 million yuan, 550 million yuan and 897 million yuan), corresponding to 144 / 52 / 34 times of PE, which was raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the policy is not as expected, and the market competition intensifies.
