\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Events
On the evening of February 27, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021: the revenue in 2021 was 2.282 billion yuan, an increase of 16.47% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 150 million yuan, with a decrease of 37.89%; Deduct non RMB 91 million, with a decrease of 52.09%.
Key investment points
In the fourth quarter, it continued to improve month on month, and the product channels worked together
According to the performance express, the revenue of 2021q4 was 654 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73 million yuan, an increase of 37.7% at the same time; Deduction of non RMB 66 million, an increase of 40.4% at the same time. In 2021q1, Q2 and Q3, the revenue growth rate was 27%, - 2% and 15% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 43%, - 146% and - 51% respectively. In the fourth quarter, the revenue and profit improved month on month, and the profit in the fourth quarter turned from loss to profit.
According to the performance express, we believe that the performance in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations due to the following reasons: 1) after the impact of community group buying in the first half of last year, the company further focused on the core categories, optimized bulk weighing products and expanded quantitative packaging products, accurately put them into different channels for differentiated competition, covered all specifications and channels, and expanded key areas for large-scale competition; 2) In the fourth quarter of last year, we controlled and maintained a relatively reasonable cost investment, and carried out structural optimization of sales products, sales channels and sales regions at the same time; 3) In 2021, the overall optimization effect of the company's supply chain will gradually appear. In 2021, the company successively launched a series of new products, such as cod tofu, cod crab fillet, COD sausage, konjac, vegetarian tripe, etc. the market cost and R & D cost of the new products in the initial stage of listing are large. After the incubation and promotion period, the scale effect has gradually begun to reflect; 4) In 2021, the company paid 59 million yuan before income tax.
In the first quarter or under pressure, the probability of completing equity incentive is high
Considering the factors of peak shifting during the Spring Festival and the high base of 2021q1 revenue, we believe that 2022q1 revenue is under pressure. It is suggested that 2021q4 should be more objective compared with 2020q4 + 2021q1.
The company has previously adjusted the equity incentive target from 2022 to 2023, that is, based on the 2020 revenue of 1.959 billion yuan and the deduction of non net profit of 189 million yuan, the company requires the 2022 revenue of 2.703 billion yuan and the deduction of non net profit of 248 million yuan, and the 2023 revenue of 3.252 billion yuan and the deduction of non net profit of 380 million yuan. We expect that the revenue growth rate in the four quarters of 2022 will be low before and high after, and the probability of completing the equity incentive target is high.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company's reform in products and channels, and it is expected to continue to improve in 2022. According to the performance express, we adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 1.16/2.03/3.05 yuan (the previous values were 1.32/2.26/3.24 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 56 / 32 / 22 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the promotion of new products is not as expected, the risk of rising raw materials, the reduction of business overload passenger flow, etc.
