Zhou’s view: the policy has entered a loose period and attaches importance to the two main opportunities of securities companies
On Monday, the central bank comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement, which was in line with market expectations. The market still had expectations for further easing of subsequent liquidity. In the next quarter, it may be in the stage of wide liquidity to wide credit, which was good for the brokerage sector in terms of fundamentals and trading level; The central economic work conference was held this week. The market’s expectation of “steady growth” policy was improved. At the same time, the first mention of “fully implementing the registration system” was slightly higher than expected. The securities business sector is in the double business cycle of industrial policy and macro liquidity policy. It once again reminds us to pay attention to the current opportunities of the securities business sector, value the two main opportunities of big wealth management and head securities companies, and focus on the clear growth space Subject matter with greater upward elasticity.
Securities companies: the central economic work conference first proposed the “comprehensive registration system” and attached importance to the current opportunities of securities companies
(1) The central economic work conference was held in Beijing this week. The conference said that we should continue to implement the active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, the expectation of “stable growth” should be improved, and the period from liquidity easing to credit easing is obviously good for the securities sector; the conference said that we should adhere to the position of “real estate without speculation”, and in the medium and long term, the asset allocation of residents should change from “real estate” The migration to the capital market will continue, which will benefit the wealth management and asset management business of securities companies; The meeting first proposed the “full implementation of the stock issuance registration system”. In 2019 and 2020, the registration system reform of the science and innovation board and the gem will be implemented successively. In 2021, the quality of listed companies will be improved and the registration system will be implemented on the Beijing stock exchange. From the above statement, we expect that the registration system will be fully implemented on the main board in 2022, the process is slightly higher than expected, and the full registration system will further lead to the expansion of the capital market, Favorable to various businesses of securities companies (see the text for details), the head securities companies have strong comprehensive competitiveness and benefit more. (2) The process of the comprehensive registration system has exceeded expectations. The securities sector is in the double boom cycle of industry policy and macro liquidity policy, the valuation is still low, and the profit boom continues to rise. We continue to be optimistic about the cross-year market of the securities sector, recommend two main investment opportunities, recommend the leading targets of the main line of big wealth management, and favor the securities companies with undervalued values. We recommend Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Insurance: the pressure on the liability side is still on, and we pay attention to the transformation of agents
(1) The market pays more attention to the impact of the “measures for the management of sales of life insurance”. The above measures are beneficial to the healthy development of the industry in the long term, but they have great pressure on the recruitment and retention of new employees of insurance companies in the short term. We pay attention to the implementation of follow-up policies. At present, the industry agents are still in the compression stage and “manpower is low” Or in June 2022, pay attention to the follow-up manpower transformation, high-performance manpower and production capacity. (2) The improvement of the insurance liability side still needs to be observed. The improvement of the risk margin of the real estate chain is beneficial to the insurance investment side to a certain extent. It is recommended that China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with leading transformation and outstanding comprehensive competitive advantage benefit the subject AIA.
Beneficiary target portfolio securities companies: Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) ;
Insurance: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , AIA; Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk tip: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on securities companies and insurance profits; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
