Key investment points:
Current market review
Current period (12.06 – 12.10) the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3666.35, up 1.63%; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed at 5055.12, up 3.14%; the small and medium 100 index closed at 10056.61, up 2.82%; the current Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological industry index closed at 11240.97, up 1.08%, ranking 11th among the 28 primary industry indexes of Shenwan. Among the seven secondary sectors, pharmaceutical businesses outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and small and medium-sized 100.
Important information
On December 8, The State Drug Administration urgently approved the registration application for the combined treatment drugs of covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody ambacizumab injection (brii-196) and romisvir monoclonal antibody injection (brii-198) of Tengsheng Huachuang Pharmaceutical Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. This is the first approved covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combined treatment drug with independent intellectual property rights in China. According to the Emergency review and approval shall be conducted according to the relevant provisions of the drug administration law and the special drug approval procedures, The above two drugs were approved for the treatment of light and common New Coronavirus and COVID-19 (40kg) adults and adolescents (12 to 17 years of age, weight over or equal to 12) with high-risk factors (including hospitalization or death). Among them, adolescents (12 – 17 years old, weight over 40kg) were eligible for approval.
On December 10, Beijing officially lowered the price of covid-19 virus nucleic acid detection in public hospitals. The price of single person single test was reduced to 35 yuan per person and the price of mixed test was reduced to 8 yuan per person. It has come into effect since December 11. This price is a new low in the third round of national joint commissioning. So far, A total of 30 provinces have successively reduced the price of single inspection to less than 40 yuan per person (including 40 yuan), and the price of mixed inspection to less than 10 yuan per person (including 10 yuan). According to the requirements, all localities will complete the price reduction before December 15. Since the outbreak of covid-19 pneumonia, all localities have continued to carry out centralized procurement of covid-19 virus nucleic acid detection kits from the overall situation of overall epidemic prevention and control and socio-economic development, and continuously optimized the detection service price of public medical institutions. After several rounds of adjustment, the national nucleic acid detection price is 2021 In mid September, it has been reduced to less than 60 yuan per person for single inspection and 15-20 yuan per person for mixed inspection. In order to control the expenditure of testing and screening at an affordable level and strive to maintain a balance between epidemic prevention and control, economic development and social life, in mid November 2021, the National Medical Insurance Bureau launched the third round of national joint commissioning to guide all localities to further reduce the price and cost of covid-19 virus nucleic acid testing in public hospitals.
Core view
The pharmaceutical and biological industry index rose 1.08% in the current period, ranking 11th among the 28 primary industry sectors of Shenwan. Among the seven secondary sectors, pharmaceutical business outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 and SME 100. In terms of epidemic situation, the emergence of new mutant strains and immune escape have increased more uncertainty for overseas epidemic situations. At present, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States, Britain, Germany and other countries ranks first. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, covid-19 vaccination has been steadily promoted. According to the data of China National Health Commission, as of December 10, China had received a total of 2.592 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine.
In terms of news, on December 8, The State Drug Administration approved the covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combination therapy drugs ambacizumab injection (brii-196) and romistumab injection of Tengsheng Huachuang Pharmaceutical Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd (brii-198) application for registration. The combination of ambacizumab injection and romisvir injection is the first approved drug for the combined treatment of covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody with independent intellectual property rights in China. In terms of effectiveness, the interim data show that it can reduce the hospitalization or mortality of patients by 78%. The latest disclosed data show that ambacizumab injection and romisvir injection Anti injection can reduce the risk of severe and death in moderate and mild covid-19 patients by 80%. The specific pricing of ambacizumab injection and romisizumab injection is still under discussion. Compared with the United States, the purchase price of the same type of antibody drugs in the United States is US $2100. In addition to the listing of covid-19 antibody drugs of tengshengbo pharmaceutical, the R & D Progress of other covid-19 antibody drugs in China is also progressing smoothly. Three projects have entered the clinical stage above phase II / III, namely Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) js016 jointly developed with Lilly and the combined anti body therapy of banivir. Its treatment scheme can reduce the hospitalization and mortality of patients by 70%. At present, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) the treatment scheme developed in cooperation with Lilly has been approved for use in the European Union, India, the United States and other regions; Dxp-604 of danxu biology and scta01 of Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) have also entered clinical phase II / III. In terms of oral drugs, two R & D projects participated by Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises are prochloramide, which develops the pharmaceutical industry, And avigan jointly developed by Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600267) and Fuji Toyama, a Japanese enterprise (faviravir / avifavir). Prochloramide, which develops the pharmaceutical industry, is currently in phase III clinical stage. According to the data disclosed by the company, prochloramide can reduce the hospitalization rate of outpatients by 91%. With the listing of covid-19 antibody drugs in China and the smooth progress of oral drug research and development, the successive approval of vaccines, antibodies and small molecular oral drugs constitutes the prevention and control of cov The complete closed loop of id-19 and the smooth progress of oral drug clinical trials will gradually make the idea of influenza of covid-19 a reality. The global vaccination of covid-19 vaccine is progressing in an orderly manner. However, with the emergence of new mutant strains and immune escape, the protective effect of the existing covid-19 vaccine will undoubtedly be impacted. The twists and turns of global opening will increase the local fluctuation and repetition of the epidemic situation at the same time. Based on the judgment of long-term fluctuation and repeated uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic situation, we can continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 prevention and control industry chain in the short term, including covid-19 oral drugs, vaccines and antibodies, as well as the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and control drug supply chain. At the same time, with the confirmation of the end of the economic policy and the closing of the central economic work conference, the overall market temperature and recovery trend are established, the market focus may focus on the sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic, the undervalued value of consumption attributes, and the TCM sector may usher in the opportunity of sustained recovery. Growth and valuation will dynamically match to a reasonable range over a period of time. At the time point when valuation switching is gradually approaching, advance layout needs to pay particular attention to marginal improvement and sustainability of growth. Affected by the downward economic expectation, the defense attribute of the pharmaceutical industry has been favored by institutions, showing a continuous recovery trend. In the long run, the long-term promotion logic of the procurement of drugs and consumables remains unchanged. Enterprises with relatively high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation:
1) Innovative drugs and innovative drug industry chain, including comprehensive and specialized innovative drug enterprises and CXO industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) , Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ;
2) It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) as the leader of high-end medical devices with outstanding import substitution ability;
3) It is suggested to pay attention to Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) and Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) for the medical service industry immunized by drug and equipment price reduction;
4) Consumer and undervalued traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, including growth consumer, vaccine and traditional Chinese medicine, are recommended to pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) and Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) .
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic fluctuation risk
