Recommended target and beneficiary target of light industry this week
Key recommendations of light industry this week: be optimistic about the leading of household sector, electronic cigarette leading and packaging leading.
Recommended combinations for home furnishing sector: Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Minhua holdings, Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ; Beneficiary object: Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) . Recommended target of e-cigarette: smore international.
Recommended object of packaging plate: Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) .
Update this week: we expect orders to increase by about 20% in Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) 11, and the growth rate of domestic sales is higher than that of export sales. It is estimated that the overall order receiving in Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) 11 is close to 20%, and the growth rate is higher than that in October, of which the growth rate of the packaged channel is faster. It is expected that the growth rate of orders in Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) november will be 30 +%, and the growth rate of independent brands is higher than that of the whole.
Policy recovery and RRR reduction to supplement liquidity, optimistic about the valuation repair of the home sector
Event 1: on December 6, 2021, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. The meeting stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. Event 2: on December 6, 2021, the central bank announced that in order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, It is decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%. This reduction is a comprehensive reduction, which will release about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds.
We believe that there have been positive changes in the current real estate policy, and we are optimistic about the valuation and repair of the downstream home sector. This RRR reduction will help to increase the compliance credit in the real estate field, enhance the liquidity of the real estate industry, and better meet the demand for rigid demand and improved house purchase. In addition, according to the data released by the central bank, RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan in November 2021, of which medium and long-term loans to the household sector increased by 582.1 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 38% over October, reaching the highest peak since April. The medium and long-term loans of the household sector are generally house purchase loans, and the reasonable mortgage demand of real estate is gradually met. Real estate related policies are frequently positive, and the post cycle home sector suppressed by early real estate pessimism is expected to usher in valuation repair.
The policy of “furniture and home decoration to the countryside” is expected to boost the rural home consumption market in the future
Event: on December 8, 2021, Wu Xiao, director of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said at the policy briefing to promote the upgrading of rural residents’ consumption echelon. We will encourage qualified areas to carry out the renewal of rural household appliances, and implement subsidies for furniture and home improvement and a new round of automobile to the countryside. We will promote the upgrading of durable consumer goods for rural residents.
The scale of the rural consumer market is large. In the future, the introduction of supporting policies and the implementation of subsidies for furniture and home decoration to the countryside can further stimulate the demand for furniture and home decoration in rural areas, and benefit the listed home companies that pay attention to the sinking of channels, product prices and types. According to the data of the seventh census, in 2020, China’s population living in rural areas reached 509.79 million, and a large population base has built a huge consumer market foundation. Meanwhile, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in 2021h1 was 9248 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and the actual year-on-year increase of 14.1% after deducting price factors, It is higher than the GDP growth (+ 12.7%) and the income growth of urban residents (+ 10.7%) in the same period. The rapid growth of rural residents’ income is conducive to the upgrading of consumption. Combined with the stimulation of national policies, the rural household consumption market is expected to be boosted.
Risk tip: policy risk, rising raw material prices and repeated overseas epidemics.
