In November, the sales volume of excavators was – 37% year-on-year, and the Chinese market was under periodic pressure
In November 2021, the sales volume of excavators was 20444, Year on year – 36.6% (basically in line with CME’s previous expectation of – 38%). Among them, 14014 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year – 51.4%; 6430 units were exported, with a year-on-year + 89.0%, and the export reached a new high in a single month. Structurally, the sales of small / medium / large-scale excavation in China in November were 8806 / 3327 / 1881 units, accounting for 62.8% / 23.7% / 13.4% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.10 / – 4.10 / + 0.90pct. The downstream real estate was under pressure, and the proportion of medium excavation decreased.
From January to November 2021, 318746 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.7%; Among them, 258934 units were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of – 2.5%; 59812 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of + 95.9%; Export sales accounted for 18.8% of the total sales, maintaining an upward trend. Driven by the recovery of overseas markets and the globalization of domestic brands, exports continued to maintain rapid growth.
In November, the sales volume of excavators decreased significantly year-on-year, Mainly due to: (1) pressure on the two downstream investment of infrastructure + real estate: in October, the newly started area of houses was – 32.4% year-on-year, and the completed amount of infrastructure investment was + 0.7% year-on-year. (2) The operating rate of downstream projects is insufficient: the rising price of building materials, superimposed with the uncertainty caused by power rationing and shutdown, and the developer’s willingness to start construction is blocked. The new construction area from January to October is – 7.7% year-on-year, and the single month in October is – 32.4% year-on-year, with a further decline compared with September.
RRR reduction releases the expectation of steady growth and pays attention to the marginal improvement trend of steady growth plate
On 6 December, The central bank is scheduled to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio), release 1.2 trillion yuan of funds to support small and medium-sized enterprises and new energy and new infrastructure. In the first half of 2022, the demand for steady economic growth, we judge that special bonds are expected to be issued in advance in 2022, and social finance is expected to stabilize and recover in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year. In terms of industry fundamentals, based on the base effect, we expect 2022 The year-on-year growth rate of the industry in the second quarter was significantly improved compared with that in the first quarter, and attention was paid to the marginal improvement trend of infrastructure sector and industry data.
The electrification process exceeded expectations and was good for construction machinery
Electrification can reduce the whole life cycle cost of construction machinery, transfer the value in the operation stage to the manufacturing end, and improve the technical level of equipment and software, which is conducive to the expansion of market scale and profit margin of the industry. Based on the advantages of saving operating costs and policy support (e.g. no on the road for excessive emission, unlimited travel with green card, tax exemption, etc.), the electrification penetration rate of construction machinery products represented by concrete mixer, muck truck, excavator and loader is expected to achieve leapfrog development in the future.
Investment advice
Recommend [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] one of the most globally competitive high-end manufacturing leaders in China and look forward to the opportunities in the process of globalization. [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] crane + concrete machinery is the leader in the post cycle, and the emerging strategic business contributes to a new growth pole. [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ] as the leader of truck crane, the mixed reform is expected to greatly release the performance elasticity. [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ] domestic hydraulic parts are scarce, and pump valve + non-standard large-scale force passing through the cycle.
Risk tip: infrastructure real estate investment is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies; Global trade disputes.
