\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 705 Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) )
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021, with a revenue of 14.912 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 13.05%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 792 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 29.15%, a net profit not attributable to the parent of 682 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 26.78%, and an annual net profit attributable to the parent of 5.3%, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.2pct. Q4 revenue was 4.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%, net profit attributable to parent was 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.3%, net profit not attributable to parent was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.6%, and Q4 net profit attributable to parent was 4.7%, a year-on-year increase of – 0.4pct.
Revenue side: the growth rate of domestic sales in the fourth quarter was bright, and the diversification of categories was progressing smoothly
In terms of export sales, the company achieved annual revenue of about 11.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%, and Q4 achieved revenue of about 3.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.4%. We believe that the tight Q4 shipping and other factors have a certain negative impact on the company’s shipping rhythm and revenue growth. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the export demand is still strong and the company’s business is still growing.
In terms of domestic sales, the company achieved annual revenue of about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%, and Q4 achieved revenue of about 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.2%. Among them, the annual revenue of Mofei brand was about 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, and the revenue of Q4 was about 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19%; The annual revenue of Dongling brand was about 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%, and that of Q4 was about 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6%. In the field of household appliances, moffy launched some new household appliances in the fourth quarter and made good progress: according to the business consultant data, the transaction amount of moffy kitchen appliances Q4 was – 8% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased narrower month on month, including tableware disinfector Q4 + 29% year-on-year and electric kettle + 103% year-on-year; The Q4 transaction amount of household appliances was + 20% year-on-year, of which the ironing machine was + 163% year-on-year. We believe that the good performance of Mofei in the fourth quarter may be related to the revenue contribution of gifts and group purchase at the end of the year. At the same time, the company has made smooth progress in the diversified development of domestic sales categories. The recent release of new products of floor washing machine has the characteristics of super large water tank and dry and wet waste separation, which will focus on the development of categories for the company or is expected to further provide power for the growth of its own brand.
Profit side: in the fourth quarter, the year-on-year decline in parent net interest rate narrowed, and the profitability of the whole year was under pressure
The company’s net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 5.3% in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of -3.2pct. Throughout the year, factors such as the rise of bulk raw materials and the rise of exchange rate have put pressure on the company’s profitability year-on-year. The company has responded to relevant risks by adjusting prices and signing forward contracts, and the subsequent profitability may be repaired. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 4.7%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.4pct (Q3 was -4.9pct). From the perspective of the fourth quarter, the parent net interest rate decreased month on month compared with Q3, but the year-on-year decline narrowed. We believe that due to the lag in the transmission of cost impact in the production process, the profitability of the company is affected or related to the upward pressure of early-stage cost. Although there are still many uncertainties in Dazhong raw material market, the company actively takes measures to deal with them, or is expected to smooth out the negative factors on the cost side.
Investment suggestion: the company’s export ODM business is in a stable position. Although overseas demand has dropped, it is still better than expected. If the cost side pressure improves in the future, it is expected to achieve a restorative rebound. In terms of domestic sales, the diversification of the company’s independent brands is progressing smoothly, and Mofei life appliances are performing well. The recent launch of new land washing machines may contribute a new driving force to the growth of the brand. We expect the net profit of 21-23 years to be 792 million yuan, 1018 million yuan and 1302 million yuan (the previous value is 820 million yuan, 1.22 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan), and the corresponding dynamic valuations are 19.72x, 15.34x and 12x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the promotion of new products is less than expected, the risk of macroeconomic slowdown, the risk of overseas demand is less than expected, and the risk of raw material price fluctuation. The performance express data is only preliminary accounting data, which shall be subject to the annual report data officially disclosed by the company.
