Key investment points
Electrical equipment 13272 fell 1.59%, weaker than the market. This week (from December 6 to December 10, the same below), photovoltaic rose by 4.47%, industrial control automation rose by 2.75%, power generation and power grid rose by 1.87%, wind power fell by 1.68%, power generation equipment fell by 1.99%, new energy vehicles fell by 2.14%, lithium batteries fell by 2.59%, and nuclear power fell by 2.74%. The top five increases were Changzhou Shenli Electrical Machine Incorporated Company(603819) , Northeast Electric Development Company Limited(000585) , Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; the top five decreases were * ST jiangte, Shijiazhuang Tonhe Electronics Technologies Co.Ltd(300491) , Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) 。
Industry level: (the price is the data of this Friday) passenger Federation: in November, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 429000, with a month on month increase of 132% / 18%; China Automobile Association: in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 450000, with a month on month sales volume of + 121% / 17%; in November, the loading volume of power batteries was 20.8gwh, with a month on month increase of 35.1%, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share of 55%; as of November, the number of charging piles in China was 2.385 million, with a year-on-year increase of 55%; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will invest 3.4 billion yuan in Suzhou to establish Suzhou times Xin’an energy; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) cut into Ford supply chain; The new energy auto parts industrial park project of Byd Company Limited(002594) 15 billion yuan landed in Xi’an high tech Zone; Cobalt is quoted at 482000 yuan / ton, this week + 5.5%, nickel at 147000 yuan / ton, this week – 1.2%, manganese at 41600 yuan / ton, this week + 1.7%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 217900 yuan / ton, this week + 3.3%, cobalt trioxide precursor at 356500 yuan / ton, this week + 2.3%, cobalt chloride precursor at 113500 yuan / ton, this week + 3.2%, lithium manganate cathode at 73500 yuan / ton, this week + 4.3%, The quotation of Sanyuan 523 (single crystal) cathode is 241500 yuan / ton, which is + 0.8% this week. New energy: the Central Economic Work Committee: the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control; the national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan for implementing the carbon peak carbon neutralization target and promoting the green and high-quality development of new infrastructure such as data center and 5g To encourage the use of wind energy, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and other renewable energy; Beijing issued the notice on standardizing the construction management of high-quality commercial housing projects, which requires that high-quality houses must be equipped with photovoltaic or photothermal systems; Zhonglai optoelectronics j-topcon2 01.5gw battery put into operation; Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) sign a strategic cooperation agreement with state power investment Henan Company; Monocrystalline silicon material this week was 260 yuan / kg, down 3.70% month on month; The quotation of 166 / 182 / 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 5.15/6.15/5.8 yuan / wafer, down 3.20% / 0.81% / 3.33% month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery was 1.05 yuan / W, down 2.78% month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc module is 2.01 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of – 0.50%; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: 11. Shipment data of industrial control industry: servo: Yaskawa 210 million yuan (+ 11%), Panasonic 160 million yuan (+ 14%), delta 145 million yuan (+ 0%), Hechuan 52 million yuan (+ 18%); low voltage frequency conversion: ABB 250 million yuan (- 4%), Yaskawa 96 million yuan (+ 17%); medium and large PLC Schneider 80 million yuan (+ 0%).
Company level: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) : it is proposed to invest 41.7 million yuan to acquire 70% equity of Fenggu energy saving to strengthen independent R & D capability; Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : issue convertible bonds to raise ≤ 256 million yuan and invest in 152000 tons of new lithium battery materials, 20000 tons of lithium difluorosulfimide, 62000 tons of electrolyte basic materials and 60000 tons of daily chemical basic materials; Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) : it is proposed to build an integrated project of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate material production line with an annual output of 200000 tons, with a total investment of about 10 billion yuan; Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : it is proposed to build a 300000 t / a iron phosphate project in Yidu City, Yichang City by stages; Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) : Weilan new energy plans to purchase no less than 25000 tons of solid lithium battery materials; Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) : it is proposed to grant restricted shares ≤ 39981400 shares (accounting for 0.72% of the total share capital), and the first grant price is 21.04 yuan / share; Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) : issue convertible bonds to raise ≤ 299 million yuan to invest in the construction project of 500MW wind farm, 300 sets of wind power blades and 120000 tons of wind power tower in Xinghe County, Ulanqab city; Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) : Xintai materials, a subsidiary, plans to build a project with an annual output of 30000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium fluoride, calcium chloride and other lithium salt materials, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan; Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) : 1) sign an agreement with Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) to sell about 600 million monocrystalline silicon chips, with a contract value of about 3.6 billion yuan; 2) It is proposed to invest in the construction of Leshan phase II 22gw single crystal rod pulling and slicing project, with a total investment of 5.5 billion yuan; Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) : it is planned to invest in the phased construction of the integration project of lithium battery cathode materials with an annual output of 100000 tons, with a total investment of about 2.5 billion yuan.
Investment strategy: in November, China sold 450000 electric vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 121% / 17%; 194000 mainstream electric vehicles were sold in Europe, with a month on month ratio of + 31% / 21%; 60000 vehicles in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 80% / 8%, and the sales volume continued to rise. We expect that in 2021, the sales volume of 3.5 million vehicles in China, 2 + million vehicles in Europe, nearly 650000 vehicles in the United States and more than 6 million vehicles in the world; In the new car cycle in 2022, the global sales volume exceeded 9 million, an increase of 50% +. In terms of the industrial chain, the demand in 2021q4 is still strong, and the production scheduling increases by another 20% month on month. In 2022q1, we expect that the off-season is not light, and the production scheduling month on month is expected to be flat. Battery enterprises generally feed back that orders are full in 2022, nearly doubling the growth. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to continue until 2022. In 2022, the volume and profit will still rise; In the battery sector, Q4 will be renegotiated in 2021, and we expect strong price increases. Some second-line battery enterprises have adjusted their prices by 10%. We expect the leader to follow. Therefore, the profitability of the battery sector will hit the bottom and rise in 2022; Meanwhile, the battery technology route will continue to upgrade in 2022, and 4680 and lithium manganese iron phosphate are expected to start mass production, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain; In terms of valuation, the number of leaders in 2022 is generally 40-50 times. Our performance doubled in 2022 and continues to be optimistic. We strongly recommend the global leader in the middle reaches of lithium battery and the leader in lithium resources. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emissions will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. However, the excessive rise of silicon material has increased the cost pressure, the quotation of components exceeds 2 yuan / W, and the production scheduling and market demand of components are challenged in the short term. In the short term, the price of silicon wafers has loosened, indicating that the negative feedback from the downstream has been transmitted upward to silicon wafers. We expect silicon wafers to take the lead in reducing prices to promote the upward production scheduling. China has gradually built up n supporting policies centered on 3060, further built a “1 + n” policy system, and promoted the development of centralized and distributed markets by large scenic base + the whole county. From 2022 to 2023, it will form a scale of about 180gw. The opinions on carbon peak and carbon neutralization have been officially released. The “1 + n” policy system has been gradually improved, and the photovoltaic policy of the United States continues to improve, We expect that the installed capacity will be 150-155gw in 2021, with an increase of 20% at the same time, and it is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 2022. At the same time, the tou policy will further promote the development of distribution and energy storage, and we are optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, changes in load structure and large penetration of power electronic equipment, the investment in power grid will focus on the direction of grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and pumped storage, which will bring new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery, global high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation continues to exceed market expectations and comprehensive breakthrough in power assembly), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components and strong comprehensive strength), Byd Company Limited(002594) (electric vehicle sales continue to exceed market expectations and accelerated external supply of blade battery), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader of inverter and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader and power Internet of things benefit), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader of negative electrode and diaphragm coating leader), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader of wet diaphragm with strong profitability), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers and high-volume increase can be expected), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader and high-capacity release can be expected), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (iron lithium demand supermarket expectation and profit inflection point), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte leader and fluorine chemical exceed market expectation) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary precursor, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage) Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt leader, positive prepolymer leader), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, supermarket market expectation in 2021), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader of series inverter, high performance growth), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (leader of integrated components, profit elasticity in 2022), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (leader of silicon and perc battery, profit exceeding market expectation), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe faucets, amount of photosensitive dry film), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) .
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
