\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Company performance Bulletin: 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 15.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.63%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.53%. Mango TV Internet video business (advertising + member + operator business) achieved an operating revenue of 11.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.28%. In the single quarter of 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 133 million yuan, down 64.05% compared with 2020q4.
The revenue of advertising and operators performed well, the number of members increased as scheduled, and the arppu value of members fell in the whole year. 1) The advertising business achieved a revenue of 5.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.75%. The company has opened up 118 new advertisers. The operating revenue of operators was 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.17%. 2) At the end of 2021, the number of effective members of mango TV reached 50.4 million, an increase of 14.27 million over the end of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. The annual member income of the company was 3.688 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. Due to the strong promotion of “double 11” and “youth Mango Festival”, the member arppu fell from 90.1 yuan / year in the same period last year to 73.2 yuan / year, with a decline of 18.8%. Considering the price adjustment of the company’s members from January 2, 22, it is expected that the number of arppu members will increase steadily this year.
New business continues to be developed, and the content production capacity continues to be consolidated. 1) After the preliminary completion of the vertical track layout of Hanfu and chaoplay, Xiaomang’s categories are extended to domestic chaopin products. Xiaomang’s daily activity peak in 2021 reached 1.26 million. 2) The company laid out the offline live entertainment track, created a new brand m-city, and extended IP from online to offline. On February 25, mstory, the official genuine interactive novel reading platform of mango TV, opened an internal test. During the internal test, the first interactive novel “big detective” was launched, which is expected to continue to tap the commercial value of IP. 3) On the content side, mango TV was launched with more than 40 homemade variety shows throughout the year. However, due to policy supervision and scheduling reasons, Q4 has less new content and no large-scale dramas or variety shows. According to the data of Yien, mango TV broadcast volume in 2021q4 was 15.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 43.2% and a month on month decrease of 46.4%. At present, mango TV has 26 variety show production teams, 29 film and television production teams and 34 “new mang plan” strategic studios to provide support for content production.
In 2022, we will pay attention to the changes of industry competition pattern, the upgrading of content quality, the improvement of member arppu, and the business progress related to virtual human & NFT. 1) At present, among the head video platforms, mango TV is the only new media platform with state-owned background. It has advantages in content review and topic selection. Under the pressure of capital and operation, iqiyi is expected to concentrate its industry resources on Mango; 2) In terms of content, mango TV continued to increase its investment in drama series in 2022, including 16 “monsoon dramas”, which is significantly higher than the number of 6 broadcasted in 2021, and variety shows are expected to continue high-quality output; 3) Since January 2, members have implemented price adjustment, and the price increase range is lower than iqiyi and Tencent. It is expected that arppu will enter the promotion channel in 2022; 4) Virtual human “Xiaoyang” has been launched and is the first resident virtual host. The company’s digital collection trading platform is also under planning and is expected to open up a new business model.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: 2022q1 “big detective”, “Jiang Zhao dawn” and “Shangshi” are launched online, with good broadcasting data and reputation. Sound is expected to go online in March or become a new pop. We are optimistic about the company’s unique state-owned platform advantages and strong content output capacity in the long term. In the short term, in view of the changes in the industry environment and the adjustment of the online rhythm of the program, we reduce the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 2.55/2.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7% / 13.3%. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, user growth is less than expected, and advertising revenue is less than expected
