General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets recently (new regulations on insurance funds, income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② the certainty of the long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; the scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, and the superposition system continues to be standardized, and ficc structure is stable Core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ The fundamentals and policies of securities companies are in great contrast with the valuation, and the profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high, Relative roe is close to the early bull market (2015-2016) level, but its valuation is still at the bottom quarter of the historical valuation, and we are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: wait for the industry to recover and pay attention to the reform process of listed insurance enterprises. ① the negative effects of the comprehensive reform of property insurance and auto insurance are fully apparent, and the stronger the industry pattern is. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance expires, the premium growth of major insurance enterprises is expected to recover, and in the long run, it is OK The competition pattern of the industry has been optimized, and the leading insurance enterprises will benefit deeply, further strengthen the advantages of scale, channel and brand, and create competitive barriers. ② Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the life insurance industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the aging trend of population and the strategic requirements of “healthy China”, the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical care ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous cycle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Ranking of recommended sectors of Soochow non bank: Securities and insurance, recommended individual stock portfolio [ East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) ], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ], [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the central economic conference in 2021 proposed to fully implement the registration system. We believe that: ① from June 2019 to November 2021, the science and innovation board, the gem and the Beijing stock exchange have been established or reformed successively, providing a solid foundation and guarantee for the full implementation of the registration system on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen; ② By the end of October 2021, China’s direct financing accounted for 29%. In the future, the registration system will be fully implemented, and the listing conditions of enterprises will be gradually relaxed, which will increase the proportion of direct financing; ③ By 2021q1 ~ 3, the scale of IPO, refinancing and debt commitment Cr5 were 54% / 54% / 47% respectively. We expect that with the full implementation of the registration system, the leading securities companies are expected to make deep returns. 2) China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the regulations on the administration of insurance asset management companies (Draft for comments). We believe that: ① as of Q3 2021, there are 31 insurance asset management companies in China, with a total asset management scale of about 18.72 trillion yuan. Insurance asset management companies have become important participants in China’s financial market. ② regulations on the Administration The key areas and weak links affecting the development of insurance asset management companies have been comprehensively supplemented and improved, and insurance asset management companies have been guided to realize standardized operation. ③ The administrative regulations no longer limit the upper limit of the proportion of shares held by foreign insurance companies in insurance asset management companies, which helps to form a fair and orderly competition between domestic and foreign capital.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is not as expected; 2) Policy convergence inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
