\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Core view
Event: ① the company announced that Nanning subsidiary plans to acquire 100% equity of Guangxi Liujing Chengquan Investment Co., Ltd. held by Guangxi hongruitai for 1.5 billion yuan; ② The company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Nanning Municipal People's government and plans to build a forest pulp paper integration and supporting industrial park with an annual output of 5.25 million tons, with a total investment of about 20 billion yuan.
The acquisition of 1.5 billion yuan opened the layout of Nanning, and the 5.25 million ton new project further opened the growth ceiling. Guangxi Hongxing Paper Co., Ltd. has acquired 150000 tons of paper pulp and other industrial assets (including 150000 tons of energy consumption) from Hongxing Paper Co., Ltd. and Nanning Jinxing Paper Co., Ltd., which have been acquired by Hongxing Paper Co., Ltd. for the first time, but the main targets of energy consumption restructuring are 150000 tons of paper pulp and equipment. On this basis, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Nanning municipal government, which approved the expansion of the plant to 3000 mu and the construction of a port. The company plans to invest 20 billion yuan to build a new 5.25 million ton Forest Pulp paper integration project.
The new project will be reconstructed and expanded on the basis of the original plant, and the construction cycle is expected to be accelerated. Considering that the new project will be reconstructed and expanded on the basis of the original plant, and the construction cycle is expected to be accelerated, the phase III project previously planned to be invested and built in Beihai, Guangxi (1 million tons of box board and supporting projects) may be transferred to Nanning Liujing base, which is expected to be put into operation and contribute to the increment in 2023; The specific contents of other projects are not clear yet.
Nanning new base has the comprehensive advantages of geographical location, diversified raw materials and preferential policies. It is expected to form synergy with Shandong, Guangxi and Laos in the future. The main advantages of Nanning are: ① the base is adjacent to the river, which is convenient for the construction of ports and reducing transportation costs in the future; ② Close to the urban area, with diversified raw materials and rich sources; ③ The government attaches great importance to it and the policies are more preferential. Nanning base is expected to further open the ceiling of the company's growth and form synergy with the three bases in Shandong, Guangxi and Laos, which can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Slightly raise the assumption of sales expense ratio in 2021 and the assumption of kraft linerboard sales in 2023 in consideration of the investment and construction plan of Nanning new base. According to the conservative prediction, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 2.941/30.85/3.229 billion yuan (previously predicted to be 2.989/30.80/3.090 billion yuan), and the corresponding net assets per share are 7.20/8.20/9.25 yuan respectively, Roe reached 16.6% / 14.9% / 13.8% respectively. Combined with the Pb valuation range corresponding to the historical roe, the target valuation of 2022 is 1.9 times Pb, with the corresponding target price of 15.58 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Economic growth slowed down and terminal demand fell faster than expected; The company's new pulp and paper project fails to meet the expected risk
