\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Key investment points
The profit rose to the turning point of Q1
21q4 is affected by the high energy and cost, and the single ton profit of the company's subdivided products, especially cultural paper, is greatly suppressed. 22q1 is expected to achieve significant improvement. In terms of specific product segments, 1) cultural paper: the overseas supply chain interference leads to a pulp supply gap, and the prices of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp are still in the upward channel (up 13.63% and 14.31% respectively compared with the low point of 21q4); At present, the prices of copper sector and double glue have increased by 2.67% and 9.88% respectively compared with the low point of 21q4. With the arrival of the peak bidding season and the decline of import impact, the price increase letter of 300 yuan / ton in March is expected to be implemented smoothly, and the corresponding single ton profit has improved significantly. (2) Carton board paper: thanks to the cost advantage of the company's semi chemical pulp, carton board contributes the main profit of 21q4. At present, the price of carton board increases by 0.08% compared with the low point of 21q4, and the price of domestic waste decreases by 0.30% compared with the low point of 21q4. The price performance in the off-season is stable. It is expected that the single ton profit of 22q1 will continue the stable performance in the early stage. (3) Dissolved pulp: benefiting from the rise of pulp price, the price of dissolved pulp is up 5.97% from the low point of 21q4, and the profit per ton is expected to rise month on month. The company's comprehensive profit is expected to improve significantly compared with Q1.
Nanning 5.25 million ton Forest Pulp paper integration project has been invested and built, with significant regional advantages and strengthened synergy
The company signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement with Nanning Municipal People's government and invested 20 billion yuan to build the "Forest Pulp paper integration and supporting industrial park project with an annual output of 5.25 million tons" in Nanning. It mainly produces packaging paper, cultural paper, special paper, pulp and other products, as well as upstream and downstream packaging printing, warehousing and logistics and other supporting projects. The total output value of the project is 30 billion yuan and the total profit and tax is 3 billion yuan. Nanning municipal government will provide support and guarantee in terms of project land, policy support (project initiation, environmental assessment, energy assessment, etc.), basic conditions for project implementation (drainage, energy consumption, environmental capacity, etc.). Nanning has significant geographical advantages. On the one hand, it is close to Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) , which is convenient for waterway transportation. On the other hand, it is close to ASEAN countries, which can form a good synergy with Laos base; At the same time, Nanning is rich in forestry resources, has a good foundation for logistics transportation and industrial chain supporting, and has prominent cost advantages in transportation and raw materials. The implementation of Nanning project will form a strong synergy with Beihai project, which will help the company better explore the South China market, realize the overall and coordinated development of Guangxi Base in terms of product structure optimization, logistics system improvement and sales channel construction, and make the company "Shandong north market" and "Guangxi south market" The strategic layout of the three bases of "Laos - raw material advantage" is further developed.
Scale expansion, efficiency improvement and smooth logic of long-term growth
At present, 550000 tons of cultural paper, 800000 tons of chemical pulp and 200000 tons of chemical mechanical pulp of the company's Guangxi phase II project have been successfully put into operation in 21q4, contributing 22 years of performance increment. The first phase of Nanning project will focus on the construction of box board capacity. The investment target liujingchengquan currently has a capacity of 150000 tons of pulp and 200000 tons of cultural paper, which will accelerate the implementation progress of the company's capacity expansion. It is expected that the company's Nanning project will put into operation 800000 tons of box board paper and the Beihai project will put into operation 5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 tons of household paper in the second half of 22 years. With the landing of production capacity, the freight and raw material cost advantages of Guangxi base are prominent, the scale advantages are further revealed, and it is optimistic that the company's benefits will continue to improve. The integration of forestry, pulp and paper builds cost advantages, capacity expansion ensures growth, and the company can grow in the long term.
Profit forecast and valuation
The industry bottomed out and rebounded. As the leading paper enterprise with the strongest profitability, the company has a smooth long-term growth logic. It is expected to achieve revenue of 31.874 billion yuan, 33.950 billion yuan and 34.431 billion yuan respectively from 21 to 23 years, with a year-on-year increase of 47.64%, 6.51% and 1.42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.941 billion, 2.959 billion and 3.058 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.56%, 0.64% and 3.34%, corresponding to PE of 10.77x, 10.70x and 10.36x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The rise of raw materials, the demand is lower than expected, and the rise of paper price is lower than expected
