Key investment points
This week (2021.12.06-2021.12.10). The year to date biomedical index has increased by 1.08% and – 6.93% respectively. The excess returns relative to the Shanghai stock index are – 2.06% and – 3.93% respectively; this week and year to date biomedical index have increased by 1.08% and – 6.93% respectively, and the excess returns relative to the Shanghai stock index are – 2.06% and – 3.93% respectively. The stock prices of pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine have increased greatly this week Stock prices of materials and drugs, biological products and chemical pharmaceuticals are relatively weak; The subjects with the highest increase this week include: Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) (+ 17.86%), Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co.Ltd(600771) (+ 17.67%), Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002275) (+ 16.96%). The subjects with the highest decrease include: Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688578) (- 13.56%), St Baihua (- 12.73%), and Beijing Strong Biotechnologies Inc(300406) (- 10.99%). The characteristics of the rise and fall are: the stock price of pharmacies is very strong, Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) are the top gainers; medical services have rebounded significantly, Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) and others led the increase; There was a certain degree of correction in the API sector, with Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Nanjing Well Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603351) and other declines leading. This week, CXO and characteristic APIs have a certain degree of correction, but we think it will still be Q1 and other sectors with high growth in 2022. We are optimistic about the global covid-19 oral treatment and related industrial chain, focus on Pfizer covid-19 oral industrial chain, focus on Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , and suggest paying attention to Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) ; China’s covid-19 oral administration focuses on developing the pharmaceutical industry, Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) and so on, and it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) .
China’s blood glucose monitoring market has great potential, and domestic CGM technology is expected to break the import monopoly; According to the International Diabetes Federation, there are 463 million people with diabetes in China in 2019, of whom China has 116 million diabetes. With traditional SMBG (self blood glucose monitoring) compared with CGM, CGM can provide more comprehensive blood glucose information, understand the trend of blood glucose fluctuation and reflect the real blood glucose level of patients. According to insight consulting, China’s continuous blood glucose monitoring system increased from US $8.78 million in 2015 to US $100 million in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 73.2% from 2015 to 2020. It is expected that it will continue to grow at a high rate of 34% in the future, In 2030, the market scale is expected to reach US $2.6 billion. Abbott occupies an absolute leading position in the Chinese market. In terms of sales, the market share will reach 75% and the share of domestic enterprises will be about 15%. In recent years, with the continuous breakthrough of domestic CGM technology, local CGM products represented by Yuyue and Weitai have been listed one after another. In addition, manufacturers such as Sinocare Inc(300298) whose products are based on the third generation sensor technology are actively developing. We believe that domestic brands are expected to break the industrial monopoly of Abbott and Medtronic in China in the future.
Mercedes stopped the two phase three phase of HIV drug islatravir. The first domestic COVID-19 neutralization antibody combination therapy was approved: in December 6th, Mercedes announced that it would suspend two patients to be recruited for the three phase of the trial of anti AIDS drugs islatravir. This decision is to suspend the recruitment of impower 22 and impower 24 clinical trials after accepting the recommendation of the external data monitoring committee for pre exposure prevention of islatravir, so that the company can carry out further analysis of these studies; On December 8, nmpa emergency approved the registration application for the combined treatment of avid-19 virus neutralizing antibody of Tengsheng Huachuang Pharmaceutical Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. ambacizumab injection and romistumab injection. This is the first approved covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combination therapy drug with independent intellectual property rights in China.
Specific allocation ideas: 1) innovative drugs and industrial chain fields: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) ; 2) Biotech innovative drugs: kangfang biology, Xinda biology, Yasheng medicine, etc; 3) API field: Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) etc; 4) Vaccine field: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) etc; 5) Growth hormone field: Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) etc; 6) Medical service field: Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) etc; 7) Blood products: Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) , Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) etc; 8) Pharmacy field: Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) etc; 9) Medical and aesthetic fields: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) etc; 10) Medical devices: Ophthalmic consumables: Eyebright Medical Technology(Beijing) Co.Ltd(688050) , Autek China Inc(300595) ; Medical equipment: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ; Cardiovascular therapeutic consumables: minimally invasive medical treatment, Peijia medical treatment; Digestive therapeutic consumables: Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) ; Household appliances: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) etc.
Risk warning: R & D progress may be less than expected; The price reduction of drugs exceeded expectations; The medical insurance policy was further tightened
