\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 191 Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) )
Core view
Event: the company released the 2021 performance express. In 2021, the revenue reached 5.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.006 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 808 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.435 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 97 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.8%.
The cigarette label business declined slightly, and the color box business continued to grow rapidly. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.301 billion yuan and 1.136 billion yuan respectively from cigarette labels and color boxes, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.07% and + 23.52% respectively,
1) in terms of cigarette labels, the company’s market in some regions is in the recovery period, superimposed with the price reduction of some products, and the income of cigarette labels decreased year-on-year.
2) in terms of color boxes, the company grasped the upgrading trend of medium and high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging and 3C packaging, strengthened product R & D and market development, made efforts to develop high-end film products, and continued to promote the high-end business strategy of products. The high-quality cigarette box was incorporated into the color box sector, and the sales continued to grow rapidly.
Accelerate the layout of new tobacco business and develop the second growth curve
In 21 years, the new tobacco business increased by 381.16% year-on-year. Through the acquisition of high-quality targets, the company has improved the layout of the whole industrial chain of new-type tobacco, and the research, production and marketing of bayonet atomized tobacco and HNB. The revenue base of the sector in 20 years is low and has increased rapidly in 21 years.
In the future, China’s atomized tobacco will also be supervised by China tobacco. The cooperation between the company and China tobacco is stable. With the first mover advantage, it is expected to fully enjoy the development dividend of China’s new tobacco after the implementation of supervision.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As a leading enterprise in cigarette packaging, the company has built its solid basic sector for cigarette label business; Color box business force high-end film; We will pay close attention to the general trend of the development of new-type tobacco and comprehensively check all links of the new-type tobacco business. It is expected to fully enjoy the development dividend of China’s new-type tobacco after the implementation of supervision by virtue of the first mover advantage. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.006 billion yuan, 1.259 billion yuan and 1.519 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 24.8x, 19.8x and 16.4x. It will be rated as “buy” for the first time.
Risk tips
The supervision of the new tobacco industry exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Terminal demand slowed.
