Market Review
The light industry manufacturing industry index rose 2.53% this week, underperforming the market by 0 62pct； The paper sub sector fell 0.61%, underperforming the market by 3.75pct. This week, the CSI 300 index rose by 3.14%, and the light industry manufacturing (Shenwan) index rose by 2.53%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.62pct, ranking seventh among the 28 Shenwan level industries; In the secondary industry, the paper sub sector fell 0.61%, underperforming the market by 3.75pct. This week, the four sub sectors of light industry were furniture, entertainment products, papermaking, packaging and printing in order of increase from large to small. Among them, furniture and entertainment products rose 11.21% and 5.32% respectively this week, while papermaking, packaging and printing fell 0.61% and 1.53% respectively this week.
Industrial chain data tracking
In terms of raw materials, The factory price of domestic waste (excluding tax) increased, and the price of foreign waste remained stable; the external price of wood pulp remained stable, and the spot price of broad-leaved wood pulp and coniferous wood pulp increased; the price of dissolved pulp remained stable. (1) the factory price of domestic waste (excluding tax) increased by 34 yuan / ton this week; the CIF price of OCC Southeast Asia main port of American waste, European waste and Japanese waste remained stable; (2) The external prices of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp remained stable this week; the spot prices of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp increased by 140 yuan / ton and 130 yuan / ton respectively; in late October 2021, the wood pulp inventory of China’s three major ports totaled 1.81 million tons, an increase of 2.1% month on month; (3) the price of dissolved pulp remained stable this week.
The price of cultural paper remained stable this week, and the price of packaging paper increased slightly. According to the average market price of finished paper including tax according to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the prices of double offset paper and coated paper remained stable this week, and the price of white cardboard increased by 39 yuan / ton; The average ex factory price of box board paper increased by 17 yuan / ton.
The profitability of wood pulp paper products was differentiated, and the profitability of waste paper paper products was improved. The profit level is characterized by the price difference between finished paper and raw materials. The profit of wood pulp paper products is differentiated this week. The large double offset paper enterprises increased by about 31 yuan / ton, and the small paper enterprises decreased by about 112 yuan / ton compared with last week; Coated paper large paper enterprises increased by about 31 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 102 yuan / ton; White cardboard large paper enterprises increased by about 41 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 111 yuan / ton; The profit of waste paper products increased by about 26-36 yuan / ton compared with last week.
In October 2021, the inventory of finished products in the machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry decreased by 8.5% month on month. (1) The cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard from January to October 2021 was 111.64 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; (2) after excluding the influence of price factors, the inventory (estimated value) of finished products of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry increased by 2.0% year-on-year and decreased by 8.5% month on month in October 2021; (3) In terms of import volume of paper and paperboard, the cumulative year-on-year increase was 0.5% from January to October 2021; in terms of export volume, the cumulative year-on-year increase was 5.6% from January to October 2021.
Risk statement
The risk that macroeconomic growth slows down and terminal demand declines more than expected; Risk that the promotion of overseas new projects does not meet expectations
