Event: the central economic work conference reiterated "no speculation in housing" and then proposed "implementing policies for the city"
Xinhua News Agency reported on December 10, The central economic work conference proposed that "we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, strengthen expectation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies" 。
Comments: the central government again proposed "implementing policies for the city", and the house purchase restriction measures in some regions are expected to accelerate the exit
1) On September 28, we proposed that "the central bank set the tone of" two maintenance ", the industry liquidity will be repaired in the fourth quarter, the marginal recovery of residential mortgage loans will continue, and the completion end will maintain a high growth rate, which is conducive to maintaining a high settlement level; on October 16, we proposed that" from the perspective and context of investment, Evergrande event belongs to‘ α Risk '(individual risk) and fully exposed, the overall systematicness of China's real estate industry‘ β The coefficient '(the overall development of the industry) remains healthy and stable, separate / scattered / controllable‘ α 'risk' will not affect the real estate industry as a whole‘ β Coefficient 'causes excessive impact; Submitted on October 23 "The pilot reform of real estate tax will give play to the role of property tax in 'regulating income distribution, promoting social equity, increasing holding costs and cracking down on real estate speculation and hoarding', so that 'real estate speculators' can retreat from difficulties; the house purchase restriction measures in the pilot areas of real estate tax will also be gradually weakened with the normalization of real estate tax collection, so as to return the supply and demand of real estate to normal and let' housing people ' The wish is fulfilled "; Evergrande group was proposed on November 10“ α The "risk" repair has entered the implementation stage, the pessimistic expectations of the capital market will be further alleviated, the real estate liquidity tension will continue to be repaired, and the development loans and mortgage loans will continue to pick up; On December 6, the central bank proposed to comprehensively reduce the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and release long-term funds of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which is conducive to the further repair of liquidity in the real estate industry. Development loans and mortgage loans will continue to pick up, support the reasonable purchase demand of residents and the reasonable capital demand of "leveraged and stable" real estate enterprises, so as to maintain the healthy development and virtuous circle of the real estate market.
For details, please refer to the external report 20211206 "comprehensive RRR reduction is better for" leveraged and stable "private enterprise real estate - Comments on the central bank's announcement of comprehensive RRR reduction on December 6"
2) After decades of development, the regional structural differences in China's real estate market have increased year by year. Especially in recent years, with the deepening of new urbanization, the driving role of metropolitan areas and central cities has increased, and the population / resources have gathered significantly in high-energy hot cities. Some hot cities are still under great pressure from rising house prices. We must resolutely implement the "no speculation in housing", To prevent the real estate speculation group from making a comeback. On the contrary, at present, some cities are facing population outflow and economic weakness. Wu Xiao, director of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said on December 8 that we should speed up the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, open up and relax the restrictions on urban settlement except for individual mega cities. City City registered residence (except for some super large cities) is completely liberalized. The existence of the restriction measures on registered residence such as "restriction and purchase of loans" has been significantly reduced. The central economic work conference again mentioned "city planning policy". We believe that some areas of purchase restriction measures are expected to accelerate exit and support the reasonable purchase needs of residents.
Investment suggestion: the central bank set the tone of "two maintenance" on September 24 and released doubts on October 15“ α "Risk" exposure and“ β Coefficient "healthy and stable; The pilot of real estate tax is conducive to reducing the tax pressure on development and house purchase, and the house purchase restriction measures in the pilot areas are expected to gradually withdraw, Evergrande“ α The "risk" repair has entered the implementation stage; Since the fourth quarter, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair. It is expected that development loans and mortgage loans will continue to pick up. The central bank will comprehensively reduce the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points, release long-term funds of 1.2 trillion yuan, and the "leverage stable" private enterprise real estate is more favorable; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. The central economic work conference reiterated the "no speculation in housing" and then put forward the "implementation of policies due to the city". We believe that the house purchase restriction measures in some regions will be gradually withdrawn, accelerate the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, and better support the reasonable house purchase demand of residents; The attention and confidence of the capital market in the real estate sector will gradually increase, with emphasis on China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is recommended to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , rongchuang China, China overseas development, China Resources Land and Longhu group.
Risk analysis: the impact of global inflation expectation on real estate development costs and covid-19 epidemic on Residents' income and credit expansion; The "three red lines" of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and some real estate enterprises may have credit default.
