\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 169 Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) )
Performance review
On February 24, Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) issued the announcement of 2021 annual performance express. In 2021, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of 5.837 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.84%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.40%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.190 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 1.52%. In a single quarter, 21q4 company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of RMB 2.010 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 29.62%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 386 million, a year-on-year increase of - 17.84%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 296 million after deduction, a year-on-year increase of - 21.18%.
Business analysis
Revenue side: the growth performance is in line with market expectations, and domestic G10 has significantly increased its share. Chinese market: the prosperity of the sweeper industry remains the same. The online sales of Aowei cloud 21q4 are + 32% year-on-year, of which the stone brand has increased by more than 106% year-on-year. Over the past 22 years, the performance of stone has continued the trend of rapid growth. As of 22w8, the cumulative sales share of online sweeper stone brand is 19.9% (+ 8.8pct), with a year-on-year increase of more than 85%. Export market: affected by overseas promotion, shipping and other factors, the company's exports are expected to achieve double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. S7maxv series (floor sweeper), q7max + (floor sweeper) and floor washer products are released overseas. It is expected that the new products will be in large quantities in the second quarter, contributing to the sustainable development of the overseas market.
Profit side: the marketing investment is greatly increased, and the profitability is slightly under pressure. 21q4 company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to its parent company of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 17.84%, or mainly due to the intensified competition in the peak season of overseas promotion, the significant increase of marketing investment, and the overweight of the launch and promotion expenses of high-end new products in China. Profit forecast & investment suggestion: there is still enough room for development in the global Sweeper Market. The company pays attention to product and technology innovation and adheres to improving the user experience. In recent years, the company has continued to increase the marketing layout (hiring traffic spokesmen, strengthening content grass planting and other ways) to help improve the brand voice, which is expected to continue to lead the development of the industry. Affected by the shortage of global transportation capacity and the intensification of industrial competition, we lowered the profit forecast of 21 / 22 / 23 by 10% / 8% / 7% respectively. The operating revenue of 21 / 22 / 23 is expected to be 5.84/76.7/9.61 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.8/31.4/25.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.40/18.8/2.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4/33.9/26.4%. The current stock price corresponds to pe31 / 23 / 18x in 21 / 22 / 23, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Permeability improvement is less than expected; R & D promotes new products, and the product performance is lower than expected; The overseas market expansion is less than expected, and the shortage of shipping capacity affects the company's overseas sales; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; The risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares; The risk of stock price changes caused by shareholders' reduction.
