\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 187 Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) )
On February 25, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) released the performance express for 2021, and the company achieved annual revenue of 15.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.49%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.522 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.74%.
Q4 performance is in line with expectations and is optimistic about 22 years. In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 6.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.16% and a month on month increase of 104.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 815 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.65% and a month on month increase of 60.79%; Deducting non net profit of 643 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26% and a month on month increase of 66.13%, the performance is in line with market expectations.
Affected by the epidemic in 21 years, the rail transit business performed poorly, and the overall revenue fell in the first three quarters. However, the revenue of Q4 company increased by + 7.16% year-on-year, reflecting that the proportion of Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business is steadily increasing. In terms of business, the gross profit margin is slightly higher than the expected gross profit margin, while the gross profit margin is slightly lower than the expected net profit margin. We expect that with the rebound of rail transit business at the bottom, Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business will gradually develop, and the company's performance will rebound in 22 years.
Affected by the epidemic, the rail transit business has performed poorly in the past two years, but it is expected to usher in a bottom rebound. Affected by the epidemic, the railway passenger flow is insufficient, which affects the delay of the maintenance period and replacement period of national railway locomotives. As the leader of rail transit traction system, the company is greatly affected by the downturn of the industry. However, at present, with the expansion of the company's overseas market and the trains operated by the high-speed railway in the early stage will gradually enter the maintenance period, the company's rail transit business will usher in new opportunities for development, which is expected to hit the bottom and rebound in 22 years.
The strongest tone of automobile grade IGBT and SiC is the core beneficiary of electrification trend. The delivery of new energy vehicles made a "good start" in January. The sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, ideal and Nezha continued to exceed expectations, more than doubled year-on-year, and doubled the target sales volume of new car manufacturers in 22 years. The company's IGBT products are the most advanced in the development of Chinese brands above class a vehicles such as GAC, ideal and Xiaopeng. With the steady climbing of the company's phase 2 IGBT production line and relying on the IDM production capacity advantage, it is expected to achieve a leading market share in 22 years. In addition, the company locked SiC in advance and released China's first electric drive based on independent SiC devices. It is expected to fully benefit if the subsequent SiC starts.
Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) businesses such as electric drive and sensor parts continued to make efforts, and their proportion in revenue gradually increased. In addition to power semiconductors, the company's Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business also focuses on electric drives and sensor devices. In terms of electric drive, the company achieved a revenue of 284 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 257.81%, and the annual revenue is expected to exceed 500 million. The company's products are applied to Changan, Jiangling, Hezhong Nezha and other models in batches. In terms of sensor parts, the company has led cooperation with major photovoltaic customers, vehicle sensors have also steadily contributed to revenue, and self-developed vehicle sensor chips are expected to be launched later. In terms of photovoltaic inverter, the company cooperates with Qinghai provincial government and other governments. With the cost advantage and the background of state-owned enterprises, it is expected to usher in large-scale production.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 to be RMB 2.018/24.663032 billion respectively, and the corresponding current price (closing price on 2022.2.25) PE to be 47 / 39 / 31 times respectively. As the leader of China's rail transit traction system, the company has strong capital and technical strength. At present, the company extends its layout to new energy IGBT and electric drive business. With strong technical advantages and capacity foundation, it will open up new performance growth points. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of technology iteration falling short of expectations / the risk of macroeconomic and industrial policy changes / the risk of IGBT business progress falling short of expectations
